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May 19, 2008
Clinton will win another blowout in Kentucky by 25-40 points according to latest polls. Latest two Oregon polls show Obama up only 4 and 5 -- much closer than last week (15-20 point leads).
I don't buy that it is that close in Oregon. Oregon is full of Obama love type voters -- they had75,000 in Portland for Obama rally yesterday . I think Clinton wins Kentucky by 30 or more, Obama wins Oregon by 10. It will be interesting to see how media spin this kind of result.
When Obama won North Carolina by 14, and Hillary won Indiana by 2, media called for the race to end -- Obama had won. If Hillary wins Kentucky big, and loses Oregon by much less, media will call for the race to end, and say Obama has won (and Clinton should quit) regardless of outcomes at this point.
Why the media rush for Clinton to head to the exit? They did not want Obama to suffer big embarrassing losses in West Virginia and Kentucky (and Puerto Rico next week), and they want him to ignore Clinton and get on with what looks like a tight general election race versus McCain. In that regard, Bill Kristol, who has been very pessimistic about the GOP's chances this year, says McCain just had a good week, because Obama had a bad one.