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May 06, 2008

Polls little help in Picking a winner in NC and IN

Rick Moran
With residents of North Carolina and Indiana heading to the polls today, most voter surveys disagree on how close - nor not - today's primaries will be.

The notoriously unreliable AP-Ipsos poll shows Hillary Clint vaulting into a big lead nationally on Obama - up by 7 points nationwide:

The latest Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend shows that on the eve of the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton has taken over the lead in popular support from Democrats nationally. Among Democratic supporters across the country, 47% say that if the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus was being held in their state today, they would choose Clinton, while 40% would vote for Barack Obama.

These results are in contrast to a poll conducted by Ipsos from April 23rd to April 27th and released last week which showed that Obama had a forty-six percent to forty-three percent lead over Clinton on this same question. Democratic support for Clinton remains highest from women (51%), who have a high-school education or less (58%), and very low income respondents (57% among those with an annual household income of $25,000 or less).


Contrast that with the Zogby poll that has Obama blowing out Hillary in North Carolina and coming within kissin' distance in Indiana:

On the strength of good polling numbers on the final day before the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama of Illinois holds a convincing lead in North Carolina, but the race is simply too close to call in Indiana, the latest Zogby two-day telephone tracking poll shows.
The pair of surveys of the Democratic presidential contests shows Obama with a significant 14-point lead in North Carolina, winning 51% support to Hillary Clinton's 37%. Another 12% said they were either favoring someone else or were as yet undecided. In Indiana, the race is clear as mud, as Obama holds a statistically insignificant lead of two points, winning 45% support to Clinton's 43% support, with 12% either undecided or favoring someone else.

The electorates in both states are divided significantly along racial lines, income, and age, the telephone survey shows.

Zogby's numbers in North Carolina may be pretty close to accurate because of the huge, historic turnout of African American in early voting. If trends hold true from early voting, 40% of the African American electorate will turn out to vote for Obama giving him an easy, double digit win unless Clinton can capture upwards of 75% of the white vote (she has been averaging around 63%).

Indiana is a different story with most polls showing Clinton with a comfortable but not insurmountable lead over Obama.

It looks like conventional wisdom will rule tonight with Obama winning comfortably in North Carolina while Hillary may have a few anxious moments but should pull out a clear victory in Indiana.

Where next? West Virginia next Tuesday where Clinton is expected to blow out Obama and Kentucy/Oregon the following week where the two candidates are expected to split the decisions.

Posted at 10:32 AM | Email | | Share Share
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