May 27, 2008

It gets worse for the GOP

Richard Baehr
It is no longer out of the question  that the Democrats could gain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate -- they need to net 9 seats, and GOP-held seats are in jeopardy in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi,  Minnesota, Oregon, Kentucky, North Carolina, Alaska and possibly Texas and Maine.  This does not mean the GOP will lose all of these seats, but if the Democrats win most of the close races, they will have a shot at 60.  The GOP has a shot at picking up Louisiana.

The Libertarian Barr-Root ticket is the worst possible combination for McCain. They could pick off enough votes in Nevada and Colorado to give both states to Obama. 

New Mexico was a tossup leaning to Obama, but now is even more at risk. Nevada was leaning to McCain, and that may be Root's strongest state.  In the end third party candidates tend to fade in close elections, but this year McCain will keep tacking left to win votes of Democrats and independents uncomfortable with Obama, and this will leave more on the right open for Barr and Root. 

In order of risk: Barr-Root will do well in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico -- all tossup states.   They could make Georgia, Montana and Alaska tighter, but probably not tip these states to Obama.  I don't see much impact in Midwestern swing states. 

Comments

It's hard to worry about GOP prospects in the Senate. They haven't done much for me lately, meaning in the last eight years. The Libertarians won't affect Senate races. They may throw some states over to Obama, but it's not likely they'll be the margin of difference in the Electoral College.
And what if New Mexico and Nevada give Obama the WH? It means McCain couldn't hold his own region and so it's no less than the GOP deserves for nominating him. I'm in a blue state and all I know is that in every race on the ballot in November, I'm voting third party when possible and anti-incumbent the rest of the way. The lesser of two evils is not an option so long as there is another choice.

I suppose this is what the so-called hard core conservatives want by their constant rejection and ridicule of McCain. If Obama is elected to the White House, the Republican Party may kiss their buttock for decades and the conservatives may cry foul for conservative judges for decades.

It is utterly pathetic to see how the so-called conservatives constantly ridiculing each other. Ironically, each camp keeps bringing Reagan to their discussion and yet completely ignoring his dictum "Don't speak bad about other fellow conservatives".

A comment that I wrote that fits here:

The concept of Lesser of Two Evils is the GREATER EVIL and has been foisted upon us time and again...this country is slipping farther LEFT ;
the R party is now the old D. party and the D party is Communist - Socialist and ............Where do we go from here?!!!

I'm leaning the same direction, pmk. I, too, am in a blue state and my Republican is RINO and my rep is Dem. I'm considering myself a "John Galt conservative". I may vote for McCain because of Iraq and the SC but his stance on the so-called global warming and his general disregard for most things conservative may tip me toward Libertarian.

McCain isn't perfect, far from it, but he's a darn sight better than the alternative. I happen to love my country more than I hate McCain, so I won't be voting third party. In time of war, our troops deserve the best CIC available, and that excludes Obama, Hillary and Barr.

As VP, Romney might be able to help McCain in CO and NV, not to mention MI, WI and MN. I'm glad McCain wants to contest the purple and blue states out west - Obama will have to spend more money there, and that will make his job harder elsewhere.

Gordon Smith is my senator, and I vowed never to support him again the day he stabbed our troops in the back at a most critical moment. I also blame him for our inability to drill in ANWAR because the last time it was voted on, it failed by only one vote. (To my mind - his.) But here again, I must do what is best for my country.

I won't vote McCain. but I won't vote Libertarian either. I WILL be sure to show up and vote for my incumbent senator, Inhofe, who is consistently conservative. We need to support the reliable conservatives we've got, not go unthinkingly anti-incumbent.

And I seriously doubt the Dems will take the Senate. They'd almost have to run the table on all the close races. It happened in '86, but I just don't think Americans are that stupid this year. Angry, yes. Stupid, no.

Is it evil to abandon our troops in the field?

To give Iraq to the jihadis?

Of course not?

What do the lives of people count when party principle is at stake?

This still doesn't mean that the Dems will be a veto-proof majority. President McCain will still be able to veto them. On the other hand, the Senate will be composed mostly of constitutional liberals, McCain will fail to appoint conservative judges.

The Greatest Peril

If the Democrats win the Presidency and control both Houses of Congress, with the Senate in super majority position then it is doubtful given their current political philosophy (socialism and redistribution of wealth) that we will see the Republic remain as the Founding Fathers intended. NO greater threat faces this nation, not even the battlefields.

The remaining branch of government, the Supreme Court will come under the Democrats full control, also the Appellate Courts, and all of the US Attorneys. This will occur quickly within the first year or so of an Obama or Hillary presidency. Here is the key:

With a super majority in the Senate the Democrats will enlarge the Supreme Court from it's current number of nine judges to fifteen, perhaps even twenty one. The newly appointed judges will all be young Marxists-socialists willing to toss the concept of Stare Decisis out the window and begin rulings anew. The Solicitor General will bring cases favorable to Marxist interpretation. The Constitution makes no provision for only one Chief Justice so the SCOTUS will be enlarged in that area too with three judges. Once again young Marxists who will be able to out vote the one current Chief Justice. More Appellate Courts and other courts will be established.

By so doing the Democrats can assure that if they lose the super majority or the White House in 2012 they will have set up a system that they have used for the past sixty years to govern by...if they couldn't win legislatively they went to the SCOTUS; legislating through SCOTUS, except this time the outcomes will be assured.

Socialism in full bloom will replace the last vestiges of a republican form of government. This means an entirely new interpretation of the Bill of Rights and the entire Constitution. There will be no way to stop this from happening barring a coup d'état. A newly constituted SCOTUS with young socialist in the chairs will rule for many, many decades.

What it means to business is more regulation, taxation, and the state taking over industries they deem most "vital", which will be defense,energy,agriculture, you name it. The government controlling the means of production; the Marxist dream

This country in four years, under those circumstances would be changed forever. That is what the Democrats will do for it assures them perpetual control of the government no matter who is elected in the future until the stars align the opposition in a position to undo the changes. That is highly unlikely to happen. Revolution will come.

THis is RIDICULOUS! With approval ratings near single digits, Congress is RIPE FOR THE PICKING!!!! So what does the Republican leadership do? Nothing. Or worse, act like Democrats. That leadership either needs to get their heads out of their butts and start acting like Reagan conservatives (which is what alot of these newly elected Democrat congressmen are doing) or be fired. They have a golden opportunity to make gains and all they can do is act like losers. What a disgrace.

Barr claims he wants to win but he knows this is not possible. If he could be a spoiler, if his presence in the race throws the election to Obama, then he will gain a certain amount of fame.

Besides, it can be fun to campaign for office. You get to raise money and fly around the country. You can stay in luxury hotels and get treated like a prince.

If he succeeds in his plan, he gets Obama elected and the country will suffer the consequences. The last laugh will be on the individuals who wasted their votes on Barr/Root since they will be vastly more unhappy with Obama as president

Those you who are considering voting for McCain becuase of the SCOTUS might ask yourself a simple question: what is the difference between a couple of David Souters or a couple of Ginsbergs? Why would he appoint Judges who would overturn McCain/Feingold? Waner(McCain)/Lieberman? Revamped McCain/Kennedy? He hasn't shown much valor in this area of his career before, why would he start now?

I finally get to make up for my gaffe in another post where I mixed up one with another: Habu, I agree 100% with everything you said. If the Socialist Dems gain control of all 3 branches of our government, this country will cease to exist as the founding fathers envisioned. They set up a 3 tier government for a reason. It was called checks and balances. Without checks and balances, those with a traditionalist view will be run over with a steamroller. We will end up like Europe. Constantly watched by the government who is supposed to represent the people, not themselves, and crippling laws and legislation where there will be no more middle class, the socialists' dream. But not the dream they envision. We will be France in 1789. There will be two classes, the very wealthy who can afford to eat, and the starving, homeless masses. Perhaps it is time for another Revolution.

Let the Dems have total power! With these extreme socialists in power, in two years the Democratic Party will be the most hated institution in US history and people will be burning Dems in effigy in the streets! All it takes is to remind people what life is like under a Mussolini/FDR style socialist...

Hugh: It's not possible to waste my vote, since it's already wasted. My state will go for Obama no matter whom I vote for. Winning isn't everything. It's not the only thing. My vote still means something - to me. I won't waste it. Voting for McCain if I don't want him in the WH will only give him a false "mandate". I'll suffocate if I have to keep holding my nose.
Habu: the Supreme Court has been under the control of the Democrats since 1987. Only "moderates" could get through a Democratic Senate and Republican presidents acted accordingly. Clarence Thomas was the exception. Then we had eight years of Clinton picking judges. Then, after Bush was elected, Ted Kennedy and other Democrats decided to band together and block nominations that didn't meet their requirements. It didn't matter that those nominees had majority support. Democrats required nominees to be to their liking or they were blocked with a filibuster, something Republicans never did under Carter or Clinton. Republicans in control managed to drive this country further and further toward socialism. Even today, one of them is calling for "controlled growth" in the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. Republicans want to grow government.
McCain isn't likely to appoint conservatives anyway.
Pamela: we are not at war. If we were, our country would be very different. We would not be letting Muslims from Iraq or anywhere else into the US. When were Germans or Japanese allowed into the US during WWII? Muslims all over the world are attacking the US and its allies, and Muslims from all over the world are still allowed to enter the US. Our borders are wide open and McCain is prepared to legalize everyone who has broken myriad laws getting, staying and working here.
The Libertarians are an open borders party. They claim this year to be for protecting the border but that's not good enough.
I voted for the Constitution Party in 2004 and am likely to do so again this year. As long as Democrats and Republicans think that they are our only choices then we aren't likely to see any real change. It will only be at the edges, if that.

I just looked at the calender and realized it's MAY. I don't understand the "thought process" of looking at today and projecting to November.

What is the economy in November?

How did the Iraqi Oct elections go?

65% oppose raising the capital gains rate. How did the Dims defend raising it?

How many "Democrats" are left after Obama has been nominated?

Instead of looking at these useless "polls", it's better to look at McCain/ Obama at Rasmussen. Why?

It's the only "race" where two candidates are campaigning and talking some specifics. Right now is the time to recon the battlefield.

pmk - Please read James Lewis today and then tell me why you are so willing to let Obama become the leader of the free world.

To a point, I agree with Habu and Pam L. If the Democrats gain a veto-proof majority in the Senate and the House, it won't matter who the President is. Four years of Democrats, in total control and without restraints, would be the end of the USA as we know it. And all they would have to do is pass one bit of legislation: universal health care. That one item would bankrupt the country and destroy the health care system, just like it did in Europe and Canada. To pay for UHC, taxes, personal and corporate, would need to be raised significantly. Increased corporate taxes will drive even more jobs out of the country. Already we have the second highest corporate tax rate in the world, which is the primary reason why there has been a steady flow of US jobs to other countries. It cannot be denied that the Democrat party [Democrat, not Democratic party] is now the official Socialist Party of America. Four years, without restraints, and America will be just like Europe. It won't matter if the citizens decide to vote the Democrats out en masse, the damage will be done, since it seems to be impossible to get rid of legislation once it's been passed and installed. I do not agree that the Supreme Court will be increased from 9 judges to 21. That's not necessary to gain control of the judicial system. All the Democrats need to do is what they've been doing for the past 40+ years: assign liberal judges at the state level, who can then overturn any vote or legislation not to their liking.

This is what happens to a party that, for its past two or three elections, has campaigned on the theme "I know we aren't much, but at least we aren't as bad as they are."

Add to that the fact that the Repubs have narrowed, and in many cases, almost erased, the distinctions between them and the Democrats.

To paraphrase what Harry Truman said sixty years ago, "Give the voters a choice between a Democrat and a Democrat, and they'll vote for the Democrat."

Until the Repubs give voters a reason to vote for them over their opponents, they will keep losing elections. As they should.

Mojo,
Sadly you have missed the entire point regarding the Democrats and power; at least as I outlined the case.

One more time. If the get a supermajority in the Senate, even for the two years between elections,AND they control the Presidency they will establish the SCOTUS as a branch untouchable for fifty years or more. That SCOTUS will be able to reinterret the COnstitution in any manner they so choose with no authority in out government able to stop them.

Let it sink in Mojo. What could they do? They could take away all black rights to vote, bar blacks from having babies, force all whites to work for minimum wage, make child pormography mandatory...you name it and they will have the power to do it...with NO CHECK ON THEM AT ALL.

Think Mojo THINK

The problem with John McCain is that he has spent a career attacking everyone who is better than Jimmy Carter and we do not know any self-epecting conservatives who will work for his administration.

McCain in 1990 doubted Souter saying he was a blank slate. McCain also lead the fight to get rid of Harriet Miers. McCain is being smeared unfairly.

McCain in 1990 doubted Souter saying he was a blank slate. McCain also lead the fight to get rid of Harriet Miers. McCain is being smeared unfairly.

It is interesting to me that the do/don't vote for McCain debate has not cooled in the last three mos. Both sides can only agree to disagree. Far from being a party unifier, McCain himself appears to be a wedge in the GOP.

Habu - A lot of what you are expressing I am in 100% agreement with, but you simply have to drop your SCOTUS argument. It would seem that you either never stayed awake in history class or are insistent on totally denying history. Obama WILL NOT enlarge the Supreme Court. FDR already tried that and was thwarted, and FDR had a super majority in the Senate when he did it. That is not going to happen. Now you do have three current Justices that will, in all likelihood retire if a Dem gains the White House, but two of them are solid liberals and the other mostly votes with the liberal bloc anyway. As long as we have Thomas, Scalia, Roberts, and Alito, we have 4 solid Constitutional votes. Scalia is the eldest of that foursome, but he is not that old and is in good health. Now the rest of your argument is valid, or at least debatable, just get off the SCOTUS part. It is not even close to debatable.

Oh, I am not going to vote for McCain or Obama this Nov., so I am not a McCainiac posting this comment.

The GOP are in a tough spot right now, but their progressive ideas will get them out of it. They promise to allow drilling of untapped domestic reserves, decrease refinery regulation, and push nuclear energy.

www.palapolitical.com

Additional tax breaks are welcome parts of the package of GOP ideas. For the long term Republicans are talking up free trade, tax cuts for entrepreneurs, reforming Social Security and Medicare, as well as tort reform. Their plan isn't perfect, but it's far better than any plan the other party is offering.

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