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May 07, 2008 Israel: Iran could have Nukes by '09Via the Jeruselem Post comes the disturbing assessment by Israeli intelligence that Iran will be able to begin enriching uranium on a "military scale" by next year:
Our own intelligence estimate, of course, says that Iran isn't even trying to build a bomb. But could the Mossad's evidence cause us to amend that NIE? This also from the J-Post quoting the London Sunday Times:
Who or what should we believe of Iran's nuclear program? No one doubts Iran's desire to possess a nuclear weapon. But are they really capable of overcoming the immense technical obstacles to build a bomb and a delivery system to threaten Israel as well as our allies in the region? We can't just dismiss these questions and then bomb hell out of Iran. An attack on the Iranians would bring far reaching and unseen consequences to not only our own security but the security of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other states in the region. Others, like our own State Department and intelligence establishment, may have the luxury of burying their heads in the sand and pretending the problem doesn't exist. But Israel cannot afford to do so - not without the potential for catostrophic consequences. We know that the Iranians are making good progress in enriching uranium to the 5% level suitable for use in a nuclear reactor. Their facility at Nantanz is gearing up to double its centrifuge capacity which would increase their ability to enrich more raw uranium at a faster rate. The International Atomic Energy Agency (who it should be noted have yet to prevent any country who wished to build a bomb from going nuclear) is monitoring the Iranian program but still have questions about their intent. The Europeans for the most part are siding with us - as long as we don't bomb Iran. Gordon Brown, Nicholas Sarkozy, and Angela Merkel all agree that the Iranian program poses a very serious threat to the west and have gone along so far with the US both at the UN and rhetorically as well. But as far as actually addressing the threat, precious little has been done besides some ineffective sanctions imposed by the Security Council and equally ineffective jawboning by IAEA chief ElBaradei. In effect, the Iranians are getting away with whatever they are doing because they are able to stonewall the international community on what their intentions are. All of this makes bombing more likely with its concomittant consequences staring us in the face. But as long as China and Russia keep handing the Iranians matches as they run toward the gasoline dump, there is precious little the world can do except stand by and watch the endgame scenario play out. One of us - Israel or the United States - will almost certainly be compelled to bomb the Iranian nuclear infrastructure - unless the world community, including Russia and China, make a 180 degree turn regarding the seriousness with which they take the Iranian program. It probably will not happen this year. But once Iran is capable of enriching uranium by the pound rather than the gram, expect a countdown in Tel Aviv or Washington to begin. Which man will you want sitting in the White House when this decision has to be made? |
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