Election predictions

AT symposium
Richard Baehr:

Obama will win by a bigger percentage margin in North Carolina than Clinton will in Indiana.  His campaign will spin this as a big victory. Superdelegates are breaking to him 
this week. His overall delegate lead is now over 140.  Clinton needs to win both today to set up a big win in West Virginia next week.

Rasmussen daily tracking  is showing Obama's resiliency versus McCain.  Every time there is a Wright flare-up (or after bittergate), Obama's numbers plunge, and he falls 6 to 9 points behind McCain.

Then within a week or two he is back even or slightly ahead.  

That suggests that McCain will need efforts of 527s reminding folks of Bill Ayers dancing on the flag and Wright on the 9/11 attacks and God Damn America for these stories to have legs. McCain will not use Wright himself, though he may make an issue of Ayers (a non-racial issue).  

Once Obama secures the nomination, some Dems will come home  and he may open a 10 point lead over McCain, reflecting the basic electoral calculus this year and the favorable Democratic playing field.  This lead will close, and there are Reagan Dems who harbor doubts about Obama who will give McCain a serious look.

Richard Baehr is chief political correspondent of American Thinker.

Thomas Lifson:

I hate to disagree with Richard, but I think Clinton may have a bigger margin in Indiana than Obama in North Carolina. Republican crossover votes in both states, inspired by Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos, could account for 3 to 5 extra percentage points for Clinton in both states. But I think Richard's longer term prognistication is spot on. I expect that the media tongue bath for the Democrats' nominee will outdo even Kerry's media adulation.

Update:

That's what I get for disagreeing with Richard.
Richard Baehr:

Obama will win by a bigger percentage margin in North Carolina than Clinton will in Indiana.  His campaign will spin this as a big victory. Superdelegates are breaking to him 
this week. His overall delegate lead is now over 140.  Clinton needs to win both today to set up a big win in West Virginia next week.

Rasmussen daily tracking  is showing Obama's resiliency versus McCain.  Every time there is a Wright flare-up (or after bittergate), Obama's numbers plunge, and he falls 6 to 9 points behind McCain.

Then within a week or two he is back even or slightly ahead.  

That suggests that McCain will need efforts of 527s reminding folks of Bill Ayers dancing on the flag and Wright on the 9/11 attacks and God Damn America for these stories to have legs. McCain will not use Wright himself, though he may make an issue of Ayers (a non-racial issue).  

Once Obama secures the nomination, some Dems will come home  and he may open a 10 point lead over McCain, reflecting the basic electoral calculus this year and the favorable Democratic playing field.  This lead will close, and there are Reagan Dems who harbor doubts about Obama who will give McCain a serious look.

Richard Baehr is chief political correspondent of American Thinker.

Thomas Lifson:

I hate to disagree with Richard, but I think Clinton may have a bigger margin in Indiana than Obama in North Carolina. Republican crossover votes in both states, inspired by Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos, could account for 3 to 5 extra percentage points for Clinton in both states. But I think Richard's longer term prognistication is spot on. I expect that the media tongue bath for the Democrats' nominee will outdo even Kerry's media adulation.

Update:

That's what I get for disagreeing with Richard.