Clinton Closing in North Carolina

A couple of new polls out show Barack Obama's once considerable lead in North Carolina melting away.

One poll even has Clinton ahead 44%-42% with 14% undecided. While probably not an accurate assessment of the race it still shows Obama in a bit of trouble. For instance, as Captain Ed points out, the demographics in this poll from Insider Advantage are killing Obama:

The biggest movement, according to pollster Matt Towery, comes from white voters over 45, but that's hardly Obama's only problem. He only commands majorities among 18-29 and 30-44 age groups, the former of which has a habit of not showing up at the voting booth. He doesn't poll above 36% in the remaining age groups, which have heavily comprised Democratic turnout of late.

His normal support among African-American voters appears to have eroded as well. Obama only captures 64% of it in this poll of likely voters, while Hillary gets 20%. That's a lot better than her 92-8 drubbing among black voters in Pennsylvania, and it indicates that Obama has lost ground in his base. If he loses 20% of the black vote in North Carolina, his candidacy will be seriously imperiled.

The key will be to see how Obama's repudiation of Wright plays in the state. Will it win him some white, working-class voters whom Wright had offended with his remarks? Or was that damage already done, and will the repudiation cause a deflation in the enthusiasm generated by African-American voters?

Another poll shows Obama's lead cut from 20 points to just 7, 49-42.

A loss in North Carolina and Indiana on May 6 would have Obama on the ropes. It wouldn't necessarily doom his candidacy but it would virtually assure Hillary staying in it to the convention where it appears that there could be a floor fight over Florida's delegation and perhaps even Michigan.

Worse yet, the prospect of a divided party going into the election becomes more probable.
 
Hat Tip: Ed Lasky 

 
A couple of new polls out show Barack Obama's once considerable lead in North Carolina melting away.

One poll even has Clinton ahead 44%-42% with 14% undecided. While probably not an accurate assessment of the race it still shows Obama in a bit of trouble. For instance, as Captain Ed points out, the demographics in this poll from Insider Advantage are killing Obama:

The biggest movement, according to pollster Matt Towery, comes from white voters over 45, but that's hardly Obama's only problem. He only commands majorities among 18-29 and 30-44 age groups, the former of which has a habit of not showing up at the voting booth. He doesn't poll above 36% in the remaining age groups, which have heavily comprised Democratic turnout of late.

His normal support among African-American voters appears to have eroded as well. Obama only captures 64% of it in this poll of likely voters, while Hillary gets 20%. That's a lot better than her 92-8 drubbing among black voters in Pennsylvania, and it indicates that Obama has lost ground in his base. If he loses 20% of the black vote in North Carolina, his candidacy will be seriously imperiled.

The key will be to see how Obama's repudiation of Wright plays in the state. Will it win him some white, working-class voters whom Wright had offended with his remarks? Or was that damage already done, and will the repudiation cause a deflation in the enthusiasm generated by African-American voters?

Another poll shows Obama's lead cut from 20 points to just 7, 49-42.

A loss in North Carolina and Indiana on May 6 would have Obama on the ropes. It wouldn't necessarily doom his candidacy but it would virtually assure Hillary staying in it to the convention where it appears that there could be a floor fight over Florida's delegation and perhaps even Michigan.

Worse yet, the prospect of a divided party going into the election becomes more probable.
 
Hat Tip: Ed Lasky