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April 16, 2008
Polls seem to show Obama Closing in PA
Another major poll out today shows Barack Obama closing to within 3 points of Hillary Clinton in the Pennyslvania primary race:
For the third week in a row Public Policy Polling’s survey of likely voters in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary shows a statistical tie between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Obama has 45% to Clinton’s 42% in this week’s survey. There is something weird going on with the polls - moreso than usual. The ARG poll last week had Hillary Clinton up by 20 in Pennsylvania while Zogby and Gallup - two daily tracking polls - have the race 8-10 points in favor of Hillary. Another poll had Obama up by 2.
Clinton led 46-43 a week ago and Obama was up 45-43 two weeks ago. Obama’s increase in support since last week comes from small gains across the board. He’s cut Clinton’s margin with white voters, expanded his advantage with black voters, reduced Clinton’s lead with women, and increased his percentage of the male vote.
“PPP has been in the field now in both Pennsylvania and North Carolina since Obama’s ‘bitter’ remarks and has seen no ill effects for Barack Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It doesn’t appear the Clinton campaign has been able to gain any momentum with this issue.”
PPP showed Obama up by 20 points in North Carolina in polling conducted over the weekend, in line with an 18-21 point advantage he has shown over PPP’s last four surveys in the state.
In some ways, this is the strangest presidential race I've ever seen. I think the pros are probably going to have to rewrite the book after this is all over. There are additional trends that they are just not catching for some reason and they will have to revise their models accordingly.
I think Hillary is still up but probably by less than double digits. Tonight's debate won't change much but it might solidify Hillary's position.