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April 1, 2008
Pennsylvania Poll Shows Obama Gaining
A new poll out today from Survey USA shows Barack Obama making significant gains in his race with Hillary Clinton in advance of the April 22 primary.
It's hard to say whether Hillary's delusions about being under sniper fire in Bosnia had anything to do with the loss of support. But with the national numbers now moving Obama's way as well (he holds a 51-43 margin in the rolling Gallup survey) it doesn't much matter:
If the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania were held Tuesday, April 1, Hillary Clinton would defeat Barack Obama by 12 percentage points, according to a recent SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for NBC 10 and three other Pennsylvania TV stations across the state. Even more significant is where Obama's increased support is coming. He has gained significantly among male voters, older voters, and in the city of Philadelphia. This is bad news for Hillary Clinton who counts on the support of voters over 55 as well as the more conservative white voters found in Philly.
However, the poll showed Obama gaining ground in the Keystone State, particularly in cities like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, and among older voters, men and conservative Democrats. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, Clinton is down two points and Obama is up five, with Clinton's previous 19-point lead cut to 12, the survey found.
Hillary is not in trouble in Pennsylvania - yet. She is not in free fall in either the state or national polls and still holds the support of a significant number of Democratic superdelegates. But she must win PA by more than 10 points. Anything less and her already weak case for the nomination would dissolve into the ether.