Barack Obama holds a paper thin lead over Hillary Clinton according to two polls that have come out recently. The Indianapolis Star/WTHR
poll shows the Illinois Senator up by 3:
Sen. Barack Obama holds a narrow lead over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Indiana, with the outcome of the May 6 primary likely in the hands of a large number of undecided voters, according to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll.
The poll showed that Obama -- helped in particular by strong backing from black voters -- is leading Clinton 41 percent to 38 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. But given the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, this race is either candidate's to win or lose.
That's especially true because 21 percent of the respondents remain unsure of how they'll vote -- a high number of undecided voters for an election less than two weeks away.
The poll, taken Sunday through Wednesday by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, showed that Obama has one big additional edge over Clinton: He does better against the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., than she does.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted by 4 Indiana TV stations
shows the same story with fewer undecideds:
Conventional wisdom said Tuesday’s voting in Pennsylvania would sway Hoosier opinions on who to vote for in Indiana’s May 6 presidential primary.
But Pennsylvania’s results don’t appear to have cleared up anything in Indiana, according to a new statewide poll commissioned by The Tribune, WSBT-TV, WISH-TV in Indianapolis and WANE-TV in Fort Wayne.
Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton by 1 point in a sample of 400 likely Democratic primary voters polled by telephone April 23 and 24. If the election were today, Obama would get 48 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 47 percent.
The poll has a 5 percent margin of error. A poll conducted for The Tribune earlier in the month showed Clinton at 49 percent and Obama at 46 percent.
This is somewhat surprising because Indiana should be playing into Hillary Clinton's strengths as a candidate. There are large numbers of middle class blue collar workers, seniors, and of course, women who make up the core of Hillary's constituencies. Plus, the largest city, Indianapolis, with a population of two million, is one of the most conservative big cities in America. Clinton should do well there as well as rural counties that border Kentucky and Ohio - two states she is popular in. We will see if those numbers remain the same or if Clinton's advantages start telling in the polls.