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April 20, 2008
New Poll has Clinton holding lead in PA
A new MSNBC-McClatchy poll shows Hillary Clinton maintaining a small lead in Pennsylvania in the lead up to the primary there on Tuesday:
A new MSNBC/McClatchy/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette poll of Pennsylvania indicates things are staying fairly competitive in the Pennsylvania Dem primary. If history is any guide, late breakers - those deciding in the last few days - will be going to Hillary Clinton. This may allow here single digit lead to expand to double digits - something she almost absolutely needs to maintain the viability of her candidacy.
The poll of 625 likely Dem primary voters was conducted Thursday and Friday and showed Clinton leading Obama 48-43%. Considering the 4% margin of error, it means Clinton's lead is inside the margin.
Still, the poll is consistent with what the campaigns and other reputable polls have been showing and that is Clinton getting close to 50% and Obama struggling to climb over 45%.
Obama, meanwhile, will apparently claim victory if he holds Clinton to a single digit victory -a good strategy considering the fact that Superdelegates willl probably draw the same conclusion.
Also something to consider; a small Hillary win will not get her a significant advantage in the number of delegates thus preventing her from cutting into Obama's 141 delegate lead. Since Pennsylvania is the last big state where she could expect to get a significant bump in delegates, it appears that Clinton - and the Democratic party - must finally come to terms with the fact that Obama will enter the convention with an outright lead if not a majority of pledged delegates.
This will probably not convince Clinton to withdraw but it will more than likely make her candidacy seem more of a lost cause than it is now.