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April 19, 2008
Gallup Shows Obama Wounded by Debate
Gallup's daily tracking poll that had been showing Obama with a significant lead prior to the debate Wednesday night has reversed its track and now shows Clinton up by one percentage point 46-45:
These results are based on interviewing conducted April 16-18, including two days of interviewing after the contentious Wednesday night debate in Philadelphia and the media focus that followed. Support for Hillary Clinton has been significantly higher in both of these post-debate nights of interviewing than in recent weeks. The two Democratic candidates are now engaged in intensive campaigning leading up to Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary and are under a continual and hot media spotlight, increasing the chances for change in the views of Democrats in the days ahead. It matters little since Obama would have to fall catastrophically for Clinton to surpass him in delegates at this point. And try as I might, I can find no scenario where the Democrats deny Obama the nomination based on some nebulous "electability" argument - not that candidate. Obama's black base would see that as a betrayal as significant as any in political history and almost certainly stay home in huge numbers on election day. A portion of African Americans might even bolt the party and put up their own canddate.
So the Democrats are stuck with Obama. And if his past associations are giving him trouble with Democrats, what do you think will happen to his poll numbers when the GOP gets started in on him?