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April 15, 2008
Clinton Maintains Lead in PA
Hillary Clinton maintains a 6 point lead in the latest bellweather poll in Pennsylvania released by Quinnipiac in advance of the April 22 primary:
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has stalled Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's drive in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and holds a 50 - 44 percent lead among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, unchanged from April 8 results. Why didn't the controversy over Obama's elitist remarks cut deeper? You have to remember that many if not most Democrats actually agree with Obama's analysis so they see nothing wrong with disparaging their rural cousins the way the candidate did.
There was no noticeable in the matchup in polling April 12 - 13, following widespread media reports on Sen. Obama's 'bitter' comments.
In this latest survey of 2,103 likely Democratic primary voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University, 26 percent of Clinton supporters would switch to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, in November if Obama were the Democratic nominee. Nineteen percent of Obama backers would switch to McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee.
A look at other groups shows:
White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent;
Women back Clinton 54 - 40 percent, unchanged from 54 - 41 percent last week;
Men are for Obama 51 - 43 percent, compared to a 48 - 44 percent tie last week;
Reagan Democrats back Clinton 55 - 40 percent; Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 40 percent.
The damage done to Obama was in the vast middle of the American electorate who will mostly not be voting in the Democratic primary but will be voting in the general election. It is here the the Republicans will make the most gains by playing up those remarks early and often - portraying Obama as an elitist liberal out of touch with ordinary Americans and their beliefs.
Some analysts have gone so far to say if the GOP plays the issue correctly, Obama is unelectable. That may be. At the very least, it will make McCain more competitive in states like Pennsylvania and give him a boost in Ohio and many of the border states.