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March 20, 2008

McCain rising, Obama tanking in Rasmussen Poll

Rick Moran
The daily Rasmussen poll out today shows John McCain upping his national lead over Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama significantly:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows John McCain’s lead growing against both potential Democratic opponents.

McCain currently leads Barack Obama 49% to 42% and Hillary Clinton 51% to 41% margin (see recent daily results). African-American support for Clinton has collapsed, falling to 55% in the general election match-up.

Obama, on the other hand, earns solid support from African-American voters but attracts only 36% of white voters in a match-up with McCain. Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California.


The flap over the Reverend Wright has really hit Obama hard:

In the week before the media frenzy over Wright, Obama and McCain were essentially tied in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Less than a week later, and two days after Obama’s speech, McCain had opened a seven-point lead over Obama. Significantly, by Thursday’s polling, McCain had pulled slightly ahead of Obama among unaffiliated voters. McCain also enjoys unified support from Republican voters while Obama only attracts 65% of Democratic votes at this time.

Obama’s favorable ratings have also fallen below the 50% mark since the world learned of his former Pastor. This can be seen as part of a larger trend that began shortly after Obama’s victories in the Wisconsin Primaries. At that time, just before Hillary Clinton began raising questions about her competitor, Obama was viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide. That had slipped to 52% just before Pastor Wright’s views became big news and to 47% just before Obama’s speech. Two days after the speech, Obama’s favorables remain at 48%.
What is most shocking are Obama's favorable/unfavorable ratings. Back in January, Obama had an unfavorable rating of 36%. The fact that it is now over 50% tells us something very significant; the more voters get to know Obama, the less they like him.

This really throws a monkey wrench into the Democratic race. There is virtually no chance that Hillary Clinton will be able to surpass Obama in pledged delegates by the end of the primary season although she may come very close in popular vote.

What do the super delegates - who are certain to decide the race - to do? Hillary still needs 2 superdelegates for every 1 that Obama gets to capture the nomination. Do these elected leaders of the Democratic party risk alienating their most loyal, most monolithic bloc of voters - African Americans - by denying Obama the nomination because his numbers have been tanking?

Glad I don't have to make that decision. But judging by the universal praise from the African American community regarding his speech on Wright, (except a few like Shelby Steele and Thomas Sowell), I would guess that Blacks would be enormously angered if the party punished Obama by not giving him the nomination after that speech where he "explained" who Wright really is. And the difference in turnout and enthusiasm might just help swing the general election to McCain.

All this is highly speculative because Obama's numbers may come back up in a few weeks. But one thing is sure; the Wright flap has complicated things for a lot of Democrats - something they were praying wouldn't happen. 

Posted at 11:34 AM | Email |

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