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March 26, 2008 Mahdi Army at War with Iraqi Military
Basra is the flashpoint for an effort by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to get control of the vital southern city and clean out the militias who have infested it.
The fact that he appears to be targeting Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Militia is significant. Maliki has finally decided to confront his political rival militarily which has caused Sadr to issue a call for negotiations and tell his fighters that the cease fire he renewed last month should be respected: Witnesses said the streets were empty aside from the security forces, emergency vehicles and people in cars fleeing the fighting. Shops and markets were closed.The Iraqi Army - supported by American air power - is proving to be too much for the militia. Sadr wants to back down but should Maliki let him? The Mahdi Army has been involved in a low intensity conflict in the south with the Badr Organization - the military arm of the largest political party in Iraq, the SIIC. Maliki's Dawa party is allied with the SIIC in Parliament which puts Sadr on the wrong side of history. Maliki's attacks on Sadr's militia may mean that the Prime Minister has finally decided to assert his authority and make the writ of Baghdad law run through the formerly independent areas in the south. He won't destroy the Mahdi Militia or kill Sadr. But he will perhaps teach Mookie a valuable lesson. With the Iraqi army apparently performing more than adequately, Sadr will now have to factor that into his political calculations. There has been a reaction in the Mahdi stronghold of Sadr City in Baghdad with the Shia militia forcing shops and schools to close while setting up checkpoints throughout the neighborhoods: Sadr City, the Baghdad neighborhood that is the center of the Mahdi Army’s power, was sealed off by a cordon of Iraqi troops and what appeared to be several American units.That's actuallly a pretty accurate assessment. Maliki, who just two years ago feared the power of Sadr and his militia, now seems eager to severely weaken him while marginalizing him politically. Expect a couple of more days of military action in Basra followed by a negotiated settlement that will probably severely curtail the power of the militias (except the Badr Organization) in Basra. |
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