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February 26, 2008
Obama Builds Big Lead on Hillary Nationally; Tied in Texas
News from the polling front has Obama surging and Hillary Clinton reeling.
A new CBS-New York Times poll has the Illinois senator vaulting to a double digit lead over Clinton:
A new CBS News/New York Times poll finds Barack Obama with a 16-point lead over rival Hillary Clinton among Democratic primary voters nationwide. There it is in a nutshell. Hillary is barely holding her own among women while she is getting slaughtered among male voters. With gender numbers like that, her support among Hispanics and even senior citizens becomes irrelevant.
Obama, coming off 11 straight primary and caucus victories, had the support of 54 percent of Democratic primary voters nationally. Clinton had 38 percent support.
In a CBS News poll taken three weeks ago, shortly before Super Tuesday, Obama and Clinton were tied at 41 percent. Clinton led by 15 points nationally in January.
The former first lady has lost her advantage among women, according to the poll: The two leading Democrats now have even levels of support among female primary voters.
Men, meanwhile, disproportionately favor Obama. He leads Clinton among male Democratic primary voters 67 percent to 28 percent, and leads among white men 61 percent to 33 percent.
Meanwhile, a week before the Texas and Ohio primaries, the race is even in the Lone Star State:
In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said Obama is their choice for the party's nominee, while 46 percent backed Clinton. But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie. The CBS-Times poll also shows 6 out of 10 Democrats believing that Obama has the best chance to beat John McCain next fall while a USA Today-Gallup poll show 7 out of 10 Democrats believing that Obama is the most electable.
Clinton had a statistically insignificant 50 percent to 48 percent edge over Obama in last Monday's CNN/ORC poll in Texas.
"The 2-point gain for Obama and the 4-point drop for Clinton are both within the poll's sampling error, so although the survey appears to indicate some movement toward Obama, we cannot say for certain that he has gained any ground since last week," said CNN polling director Keating Holland.
Two recent polls by other organizations also show the race statistically even
The Democratic party appears to have made up its mind. And unless some miraculous turnaround occurs, it appears that March 4 in Texas will indeed be Hillary Clinton's Alamo.