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February 06, 2008

McCain takes big lead in delegates

Rick Moran
The GOP race for the nomination is much simpler than the Democrats; John McCain is far ahead and if he hasn't quite wrapped up the nomination, it would take a miracle for either Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee to catch him:
Sen. John McCain awoke Wednesday with a commanding lead in the race for Republican delegates while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney plans to meet with aides after a disappointing Super Tuesday showing.

"We are the Republican Party front-runner," said Sen. John McCain, "and I don't really mind it one bit." "Although I've never minded the role of the underdog and have relished as much as anyone come-from-behind wins, tonight I think we must get used to the idea that we are the Republican Party front-runner," McCain said Tuesday night in his home state of Arizona. "And I don't really mind it one bit."

Despite finishing second to McCain in terms of GOP delegates won in Super Tuesday contests, Romney assured supporters late Tuesday he would "keep on battling ... all the way to the convention." But top Romney advisers acknowledged that it will be difficult to overcome McCain's lead in the delegate count. "It is tough to saddle up this a.m.," one Romney adviser told CNN.

Romney, who did not have any public events scheduled for Wednesday, was planning to huddle with his aides to discuss a strategy to stay in the race through March 4, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont will hold primaries.
Currently, McCain has 604 delegates according to RCP to Romney's 244. McCain is likely to pick up 20-30 more delegates as soon as California and a couple of other proportional delegate states are completely counted.

With barely 1300 total delegates left on the table, McCain would only need around 520 of those delegates to claim victory. Romney would need to win 900 of the remaining 1300 delegates to overtake McCain.

Can he do it?

McCain would have to totally collapse for that to happen. After next week's "Potomac Primary" involving Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, D.C. - where Virginia and DC are winner take all states and where McCain is comfortably ahead - only Vermont remains as a WTA contest. All the rest of the states in play will award delegates proportionately.

Romney would have to win virtually all the remaining contests by at least a 3-1 margin - and even then you can't ignore the presence of Mike Huckabee in the race. The Baptist preacher helped put the stake through Romney's heart last night when he stole 5 southern primaries. This denied McCain the overwhelming victory he needed to put both candidates away but it also killed Romney's chances of getting close to the Arizona senator.

Not enough states, not enough delegates, and not enough time. The fat lady may not be singing in the GOP race but she's certainly warming up in the wings.

Posted at 11:02 AM | Email |

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