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February 3, 2008
Late Obama Surge
Something is happening in the Democratic race that wasn't expected. Senator Barack Obama is surging in California and other states and is shaping up to do very well on Super Tuesday:
But the Democratic numbers are the shocker. Clinton, a longtime California favorite, saw her once-commanding lead slip to two percentage points, 36 to 34 percent, in the new survey. That's down from the New York senator's 12 percentage point lead in mid-January and a 25 percentage point margin over Obama in October. OBama has also surged in other Super Tuesday states, drawing closer to Clinton in New Jersey, Connecticut, and Missouri. Nationally, he has also narrowed the gap with Hillary.
But with 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided just days before Tuesday's primary, the election is still up for grabs, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director.
"It's an unusually volatile election, with a very high number of undecided voters and so many moving parts," he said. "It could be a very, very close election."
Unlike the Republican race, it appears that the Democrats will be much closer emerging from Super Tuesday. This means the race will continue on toward the next big showdowns in Louisiana (2/9), Maryland/Virginia (2/12), Wisconsin (2/19), and perhaps decisive encounters in Texas and Ohio on March 4.