Toss up for Dems in Nevada; Romney leads GOP field

In Nevada, it appears that Mitt Romney may be set for an easy win over John McCain. Romney is polling well in the few polls that have been done and is the only candidate with an organization. McCain is popular but it is hard to see how that translates into Caucus goers when he has little money to spend on a ground game.

Expect a double digit win for Mitt.

The Democratic side is a little tighter. Here's Pollster.Com with their Nevada "endgame:

The Nevada caucuses are upon us, but the polling is scant. As the graphs make clear, we have only four polls since New Years, so the trend estimates here should be taken with more than the usual grain of salt. With just 4 polls, the sensitive red estimator is going to try hard to come close to all the polls, making Clinton and Edwards look like they are experiencing huge trends. Obama's four polls are more clustered, so the red trend is a little better behaved, but still tries hard to find a trend when there truly isn't enough data to support one.

Also, there was no Nevada polling between December 3 and this week, so we have NO IDEA what happened during that time.
Even the experts are a little flummoxed.

Reports on the ground indicate that there was some anger directed at the Clinton campaign for their attempt to keep casino shift workers from caucusing in so called "at large" caucuses. And there is a general feeling that she is ahead although not by much.

Anything is possible with a low turnout but I think Hillary will pull off a narrow win over Obama.
In Nevada, it appears that Mitt Romney may be set for an easy win over John McCain. Romney is polling well in the few polls that have been done and is the only candidate with an organization. McCain is popular but it is hard to see how that translates into Caucus goers when he has little money to spend on a ground game.

Expect a double digit win for Mitt.

The Democratic side is a little tighter. Here's Pollster.Com with their Nevada "endgame:

The Nevada caucuses are upon us, but the polling is scant. As the graphs make clear, we have only four polls since New Years, so the trend estimates here should be taken with more than the usual grain of salt. With just 4 polls, the sensitive red estimator is going to try hard to come close to all the polls, making Clinton and Edwards look like they are experiencing huge trends. Obama's four polls are more clustered, so the red trend is a little better behaved, but still tries hard to find a trend when there truly isn't enough data to support one.

Also, there was no Nevada polling between December 3 and this week, so we have NO IDEA what happened during that time.
Even the experts are a little flummoxed.

Reports on the ground indicate that there was some anger directed at the Clinton campaign for their attempt to keep casino shift workers from caucusing in so called "at large" caucuses. And there is a general feeling that she is ahead although not by much.

Anything is possible with a low turnout but I think Hillary will pull off a narrow win over Obama.