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January 13, 2008
Romney ahead of McCain in Michigan Poll
With the economy taking center stage in Michigan, a new Detroit Free Press poll shows Mitt Romney narrowly in front of John McCain 27%-22% with Mike Huckabee in third with 16%.
Republican primary voters whose greatest concern is the economy could give Bloomfield Hills native Mitt Romney his first major state victory in Tuesday’s Michigan presidential primary, according to the Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll. The Romney name still has some magic in Michigan. That coupled with Romney's perceived strength in dealing with the economy has somewhat negated the huge bounce McCain got from winning New Hampshire. It will likely keep Romney competitive in the state to the end.
Romney leads John McCain, 27%-22%, with Mike Huckabee in third at 16%, the poll showed. Romney’s core of support is in metro Detroit, where he has a 2-1 advantage.
Of the 40% who named the economy as their top concern, Romney had a 42%-25% advantage over McCain. McCain wins by about the same margin over Romney among the 24% of Republican voters whose top issue is the Iraq war. But Romney's lead could evaporate, depending on how tentative, undecided and uncommitted voters lean over the next two days.
About 38% of voters who had a favorite said they might change their mind by Tuesday. Another 22% hadn't picked a candidate. The poll also shows that relatively few Democratic voters plan to vote in the Republican primary, a factor that may be difficult to gauge. Independents and Democrats who cross over to the GOP could tip the election to McCain if they show up in substantial numbers.
Can Huckabee pull off a miracle and finish second? Some analysts believe that if Huckabee can duplicate his Iowa ground game where he utilized his network of evangelical churches to get out his vote that he may surprise in Michigan. If so, a third place for McCain or Romney would be devastating to either man's candidacy.
It looks like it will come down to the wire with the result dependent on just how many independents and Democrats John McCain can pull into the voting booths on Tuesday.