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December 28, 2007
New Strategic Vision Poll in Iowa
A new Strategic Vision poll in Iowa shows three Democrats in a virtual dead heat while Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are also virtually tied for the lead:
Among 600 likely Republican caucus goers in Iowa, former Gov. Mike Huckabee runs at 29%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 27% in a statewide caucus; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 15%, Sen. John McCain at 14%. Taken before the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, Lord knows what those numbers look like today. I would hazard a guess and say that the Democratic numbers won't change that much while there is a good chance that Thompson and McCain move up slightly at the expense of mostly Huckabee but also Romney to some extent.
Among 600 likely Democratic caucus goers, Sen. Barack Obama runs at 30%, Sen. Hillary Clinton at 29%, former Sen. John Edwards at 28% in a statewide caucus; Sen. Joe Biden trails at 5%.
There will likely be one or two significant polls out before the caucuses but should probably be viewed with skepticism due to the holiday. Weekend polls are notoriously inaccurate for Republicans while any poll taken over the New Year's holiday will be pretty useless.
That leaves next Wednesday and Thursday as credible polling days.