Giuliani's Woes Continue

Dan Gordon and Richard Baehr
Rudy's numbers are starting to break down.

Rudy Giuliani's national share of the GOP vote dropped to 13% Thursday before recovering to 16% Friday in the daily Rasmussen tracking poll. As McCain's numbers have risen, Rudy's have declined by almost the amount of McCain's gain. Rudy and McCain draw from same pool- maybe half of the GOP electorate.

For a year, Rudy has taken 2/3 to 3/4 of this pool. Now it appears he is only getting half of this group.

This race has been very dynamic this last month -Huckabee up, now McCain up, Romney steady, Rudy and Thompson down. It is hard to say there is no move left for anybody. If it is Romney and McCain as the final two, it will be bitter. McCain does not care for Romney- and thinks he is a political chameleon, buying his way in.

MCain is running very strong against the possible Democratic nominees up 5 versus Hillary, up 4 versus Obama. Rommey loses by 5 to 10 against the two of them. This is the reality of the race, I think - Romney will have money to spend, McCain will not, but the media is falling back in love with him (the comeback kid), and electability argument favoring McCain is real.

Rick Moran ads:

Intrade still has Rudy in first at 29.5. But this is down considerably from his highs in the low 60's last summer. More significantly, he has fallen from a high of 40 in New Hampshire to now less than 4.

But don't count Rudy out yet. He still has plenty of cash and will be able to compete in most of the states on Super Tuesday February 5. A comeback is possible - especially as the field gets pared down to just 3 or 4. If McCain can't win either New Hampshire or South Carolina, he may fold which, as Rich points out above, is good news for Giuliani.



Rudy's numbers are starting to break down.

Rudy Giuliani's national share of the GOP vote dropped to 13% Thursday before recovering to 16% Friday in the daily Rasmussen tracking poll. As McCain's numbers have risen, Rudy's have declined by almost the amount of McCain's gain. Rudy and McCain draw from same pool- maybe half of the GOP electorate.

For a year, Rudy has taken 2/3 to 3/4 of this pool. Now it appears he is only getting half of this group.

This race has been very dynamic this last month -Huckabee up, now McCain up, Romney steady, Rudy and Thompson down. It is hard to say there is no move left for anybody. If it is Romney and McCain as the final two, it will be bitter. McCain does not care for Romney- and thinks he is a political chameleon, buying his way in.

MCain is running very strong against the possible Democratic nominees up 5 versus Hillary, up 4 versus Obama. Rommey loses by 5 to 10 against the two of them. This is the reality of the race, I think - Romney will have money to spend, McCain will not, but the media is falling back in love with him (the comeback kid), and electability argument favoring McCain is real.

Rick Moran ads:

Intrade still has Rudy in first at 29.5. But this is down considerably from his highs in the low 60's last summer. More significantly, he has fallen from a high of 40 in New Hampshire to now less than 4.

But don't count Rudy out yet. He still has plenty of cash and will be able to compete in most of the states on Super Tuesday February 5. A comeback is possible - especially as the field gets pared down to just 3 or 4. If McCain can't win either New Hampshire or South Carolina, he may fold which, as Rich points out above, is good news for Giuliani.