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December 12, 2007
Clinton, Obama Tied in New Hampshire
That thud you just heard was the sound of Hillary Clinton's inevitability hitting the ground and starting to dig:
Barack Obama has chipped away at Hillary Clinton’s lead in New Hampshire, and the two Democratic presidential hopefuls are now locked in a statistical tie less than one month before the first-in-the-nation primary, a CNN/WMUR Poll released Wednesday shows. With the Clinton campaign in free fall, some analysts are wondering if she can right the ship in time for the Super Tuesday contests on February 5. She still holds enormous leads over Obama in many big states that will vote that day and if she can eke out a win or two in a couple of primaries before then - Michigan and Nevada are good prospects for her - she may yet sweep her way to victory.
Clinton has dropped 5 percentage points since the CNN/WMUR November survey, while Obama has gained 8 percentage points, according to the poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Clinton is now at 31 percent to Obama’s 30 percent.
In the Republican contest, the new poll also reveals that despite Mike Huckabee’s meteoric rise in some Iowa and national surveys, he has yet to catch fire in New Hampshire. Huckabee remains in single digits at 9 percent, up 4 percentage points from November.
But he still trails Mitt Romney by 23 percentage points. Romney remains in the lead with 32 percent of the vote, followed by Rudy Giuliani and John McCain who are tied with 19 percent.
But all bets are off at this point. AT Political Correspondent Rich Baehr told me on my radio show yesterday that a win in Iowa and New Hampshire by Obama (who is also tied with her in South Carolina) very well might derail Hillary's candidacy for good. Her major selling point to the establishment Democrats has been her electability and inevitability. Beyond that, it appears that the heart of the party may very well belong to the Illinois senator.