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October 29, 2007
Romney and Clinton Maintain Leads in Iowa
A new University of Iowa poll out today shows the Democratic and Republican frontrunners holding on to their leads.
Romney holds a strong lead in Iowa at 36.2 percent, with Giuliani second at 13.1 percent, Huckabee third with 12.8 percent and Thompson fourth at 11.4 percent. John McCain has 6.0 percent. The poll has a rather high error factor - plus or minus 5.8% - but measures support for candidates among "likely caucus goers."
In the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, meanwhile, a slip in John Edwards' numbers has allowed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to tighten their grips on the No. 1 and No. 2 spots, respectively. Among all likely Democratic caucus-goers, Clinton leads with 28.9 percent, followed by Obama with 26.6 percent, Edwards with 20.0 percent, Bill Richardson with 7.2 percent and Joe Biden with 5.3 percent.
Contrast Romney's big lead in Iowa with his dwindling support nationally - now standing at just 7% according to the latest Fox poll. While there is little doubt he will receive a nice bump and good momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire where he also leads, many analysts are questioning whether Romney's high negatives will allow him to catch up to Giuliani in later contests - especially on February 5 when more than half the delegates to the GOP convention will be selected.
As for Hillary Clinton, with Obama so close in Iowa and even Edwards within striking distance, any slip up and her veil of invincibility and inevitability would fall away and it could be anyone's race for the taking. Obama has as much money as Clinton and any faltering by Hillary could open the door to making the contest a horse race.