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September 10, 2007
Thompson, McCain Surging in New Gallop Poll
The new Gallop Poll shows Senator Fred Thompson getting a nice little bump from his formal announcement last week while John McCain, whose candidacy was written off by some, has surged past Governor Romney into third place:
McCain, who bottomed out in a USA TODAY poll in mid-August after financial woes and a staff shake-up, has rebounded by 4 percentage points, to 15%. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has slipped 4 points from August, to 10%. On the Democratic side, Hilliary Clinton is still comfortably ahead of Barack Obama 45% to 24% with John Edwards increasing his share to 16%.
At 34%, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani leads the field, as he has all year. The poll, taken Friday and Saturday, shows Republican voters a bit more satisfied with their choice of candidates than they were in April, while Democratic voters are a bit less satisfied. The Democratic edge on that measure of enthusiasm is now negligible.
Thompson continues to be a wild card in the GOP contest. He ranks second at 22%, up 3 points since August and his strongest showing since his name was added to the list of contenders in March.
The Romney number is particularly telling since he still leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire although trailing Giuliani badly in national polls. And with Michigan and Florida moving their primaries up to late January, Romney may not get quite the bump in momentum he was hoping for from Iowa and New Hampshire thus making his road an even tougher one.
As for Fred Thompson, he has decided to challenge in Iowa which is probably a smart thing to do. Thompson doesn't have to win there - all he has to do is show well. A second or a strong third would give him momentum going into New Hampshire where once again, he is not expected to win.
McCain is still in big trouble but has performed well in the debates which could have contributed to his mini-surge. However, he still has about half the support he started the year with.