The limitation of July-August polls

Jay Cost, the brilliant young political scientist tells us why campaign polls at this point are little more than media echo chambers and not of value:Polls are valuable to a point - but they really cannot be taken as independent evidence of the state of the race. This is how the media's echo chamber is created. The media talks up one candidate over another. The polls echo this talking up back to the media. The media believes the polls offer independent evidence that justifies its talking up, and proceeds to talk up the particular candidate all the more. This is why I refuse to ask the question that Dan Balz asked this week. The manner in which voters make a selection will change - because of all the money that candidates have. That's when the real campaign begins, you know. It begins when the candidates start their advertising blitzes. That has only begun - and so the campaign has only begun. The fact that the media has nothing better to talk about in August than the...(Read Full Post)

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