Correlation of Palestinian aid and Palestinian murder

CAMERA presents a fascinating analysis of homicides by Palestinian militants and their correlation with the volume of international aid flowing to the Palestinian territories in Gaza and the West Bank. The analyst is careful to point out that this does not mean that foreign aid causes violence, but it does show that the virtually universal assumption that poverty is the source of Palestinian violence is questionable, to put it mildly.

Two charts tell the story. The first one graphs both aid and homicides on the same time scale.

Palestinain homicides and aid
The second graph applies a one year lag to the homicide rate, and results in a very startling correlation.

Palestinian homicide and aid 1 year lag


It is important to note that when Israel has taken strong security measures, such as the construction of a barrier fence, the murderous Palestinian fanatics have turned against each other, with factions attacking factions. The homicide data include both murders against Israelis and Palestinians. The analyst concludes:

Only when Israel enforced a near total separation from the Palestinians in 2003-2004 did the level of terrorist killing decline significantly. But this was soon followed by increasing factional violence, which is consistent with the fact that money was still being made available to purchase weapons and pay the salaries of the expanding militias.

Read this important analysis in its entirety here.  

Hat tip: Larwyn
CAMERA presents a fascinating analysis of homicides by Palestinian militants and their correlation with the volume of international aid flowing to the Palestinian territories in Gaza and the West Bank. The analyst is careful to point out that this does not mean that foreign aid causes violence, but it does show that the virtually universal assumption that poverty is the source of Palestinian violence is questionable, to put it mildly.

Two charts tell the story. The first one graphs both aid and homicides on the same time scale.

Palestinain homicides and aid
The second graph applies a one year lag to the homicide rate, and results in a very startling correlation.

Palestinian homicide and aid 1 year lag


It is important to note that when Israel has taken strong security measures, such as the construction of a barrier fence, the murderous Palestinian fanatics have turned against each other, with factions attacking factions. The homicide data include both murders against Israelis and Palestinians. The analyst concludes:

Only when Israel enforced a near total separation from the Palestinians in 2003-2004 did the level of terrorist killing decline significantly. But this was soon followed by increasing factional violence, which is consistent with the fact that money was still being made available to purchase weapons and pay the salaries of the expanding militias.

Read this important analysis in its entirety here.  

Hat tip: Larwyn