Bob Woodward sports a catchy headline today with his report on a meeting of the CIA's Iraq Study Group late last year:
CIA Said Instability Seemed 'Irreversible'
Let us see how often has the CIA been wrong:
WMD programs in Iraq; misjudged the Iraq nuclear program by underestimating its reach in 1991; and then overestimated it in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq; did not detect 9/11. Etc.
"Irreversible" means that Iraq definitely will be Hobbesian in 10 years or 20 years. If only we had an intelligence agency whose predictions were worthy of such certainty.