A. Jacksonian offers an extensive commentary on Ray Robison's article today on the signs of fracture with the johad in Afghanistan/Pakistan and Iraq. The commentary is lengthy and rich with links to detailed information on the people and issues Ray covers.
To the extent that the United States is involved in promoting this fracturing, AJ makes the case that the initiative comes from Special Forces, not the CIA or other agencies.
To get a multi-prong, coherent approach to the political, social, and ethnic atmospheres of Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan requires a lot of actual on-the-ground knowledge and in some depth so as to figure out the best way to approach each area. That is not descriptive of the CIA's HUMINT capability nor of the State Dept., but is highly descriptive of all the Special Forces and Elite Forces sent over to these places by Coalition Nations. Lets take a quick look at the instances that Mr. Robison cites and see what they would entail. Thus the posited concept and its follow-ons.
The commentary also makes some very intriguing arguments for a process to help the Islamic world become more peaceful and democratic by adapting hard learned lessons from the west around religious freedom and local control, even federalism. Don't laugh. Read the post and see what you think.
Hat tip: Larwyn