The declassified summary of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq (an NIE is the intelligence community's maximum document) is on the Web.  The leading Key Judgment (on Adobe page 6) is as follows:Iraqi society's growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides' ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006. I don't know about you, but to me this seems to say that things will either get better or they will get worse.  Which does indeed seem to cover the possibilities.  To someone not part of the intelligence community, however, this "judgment" does not seem to be...(Read Full Post)