The Iraqi dinar continues its recent surge, now up 11% from its early September value. As anyone familiar with financial markets knows, it is not in their nature to go in one direction indefinitely, so we must be prepared for a reverse move at some point.
However, this move up, coming as it does at a time of apparent crisis, is one tile in the mosaic of Iraq that may be pointing to success for our venture there. We do not want to get panicked by apparently negative events - the violence we see in the press and that is unmistakably a significant part of the Iraqi mosaic - and miss other, less photogenic trends that may ultimately be more important. If the Iraqi economy is improving, as the value of the dinar may be suggesting, this would be an enormous positive, even if it is occurring in the midst of great violence.