Venezuelans go to the polls today, to choose whether to give Hugo Chavez a third term, or elect his challenger, the democratic non-communist Zulia state governor, Manuel Rosales. No one knows how this will turn out.All indicators that might signal the outcome are contradictory. Opinion polls vary widely, with Chavista polls showing Chavez with a 30-point lead, and opposition polls showing Rosales about 5% to 10% ahead, in growing momentum. In addition, huge demonstrations of Rosales supporters through Caracas show the commitment of the Chavez opposition, something the Chavistas, with vastly more resources, have been unable to match in numbers. But even that is hard to draw a judgment on. One of the most curious events embodying this contradiction was the strong stock market rally in Caracas Friday. Market sources told Bloomberg  the rally happened because investors believed Chavez was winning. My sources in Caracas said it was because investors believed Rosales was winning. All...(Read Full Post)