Polls changing

Something is going on, and a few races are closing fast.  Mason Dixon has Chafee ahead today by one point. This would be his first lead in months. Everybody has written this race off.

I would hate to hold the Senate by Chafee's vote, and have him pull a Jeffords, but it would be better than the alternative, I guess.

Mason Dixon has DeWine in Ohio within 6, as close as he has been in two months. I still think both Chafee and DeWine will go down (and Santorum), but these polls and a few others must be making Schumer a bit nervous this morning:

Missouri ( Talent 1% behind);

Virginia (Allen 1% behind);

Maryland ( Steele 3% behind);

Montana (even)

All are in play this weekend.  The GOP could end up with from 49 to 54 at this point, and either result is possible, as is anything in between, assuming Rhode Island is really back in play.

Tennessee and New Jersey are close to done — each a likely hold for the current party.

Also of great interest, the ABC News/ Washington Post generic congressional ballot shows Dems up 51—45. The new Pew poll on the generic Congressional ballot is even closer: 4%. ABC/Post had a 14 point lead two weeks ago among likely voters. I do not trust these surveys, and I have concerns about the mix of Democrats and Republicans in all the state polls, though Mason Dixon is a good pollster, as is Rasmussen.

New House polls look good in NY 26, and Minnesota 6, and Indiana 9, all tossups.

The House stuff is very weird. The GOP is in trouble in the Wyoming at large seat, Idaho 1, Jim Ryun in Kansas 2, and Nebraska 1 . These are all 2 to 1 GOP districts and are 3rd or 4th tier races that should not be in play.

Also the second tier of less competitive races are now very much at risk:

Arizona 5 (Hayworth);

Colorado 4 (Musgrave);

Kentucky 3 (Northrup);

New Hampshire 2 (Bass);

New York 20 (Sweeney).

But the GOP is doing better in three races that were conceded weeks ago, though they still might lose all three:

Florida 16 (Foley);

Texas 22 ( DeLay seat);

Indiana 2 (Chocola).

I have a very slim hope of GOP holding House. I think the most likely scenario remains 20—25 lost seats.

The polls are fluid right now. Expect lots of lawsuits if either House or Senate control is at stake in close races.

Richard Baehr  11 5 06

Something is going on, and a few races are closing fast.  Mason Dixon has Chafee ahead today by one point. This would be his first lead in months. Everybody has written this race off.

I would hate to hold the Senate by Chafee's vote, and have him pull a Jeffords, but it would be better than the alternative, I guess.

Mason Dixon has DeWine in Ohio within 6, as close as he has been in two months. I still think both Chafee and DeWine will go down (and Santorum), but these polls and a few others must be making Schumer a bit nervous this morning:

Missouri ( Talent 1% behind);

Virginia (Allen 1% behind);

Maryland ( Steele 3% behind);

Montana (even)

All are in play this weekend.  The GOP could end up with from 49 to 54 at this point, and either result is possible, as is anything in between, assuming Rhode Island is really back in play.

Tennessee and New Jersey are close to done — each a likely hold for the current party.

Also of great interest, the ABC News/ Washington Post generic congressional ballot shows Dems up 51—45. The new Pew poll on the generic Congressional ballot is even closer: 4%. ABC/Post had a 14 point lead two weeks ago among likely voters. I do not trust these surveys, and I have concerns about the mix of Democrats and Republicans in all the state polls, though Mason Dixon is a good pollster, as is Rasmussen.

New House polls look good in NY 26, and Minnesota 6, and Indiana 9, all tossups.

The House stuff is very weird. The GOP is in trouble in the Wyoming at large seat, Idaho 1, Jim Ryun in Kansas 2, and Nebraska 1 . These are all 2 to 1 GOP districts and are 3rd or 4th tier races that should not be in play.

Also the second tier of less competitive races are now very much at risk:

Arizona 5 (Hayworth);

Colorado 4 (Musgrave);

Kentucky 3 (Northrup);

New Hampshire 2 (Bass);

New York 20 (Sweeney).

But the GOP is doing better in three races that were conceded weeks ago, though they still might lose all three:

Florida 16 (Foley);

Texas 22 ( DeLay seat);

Indiana 2 (Chocola).

I have a very slim hope of GOP holding House. I think the most likely scenario remains 20—25 lost seats.

The polls are fluid right now. Expect lots of lawsuits if either House or Senate control is at stake in close races.

Richard Baehr  11 5 06