Early voting results encouraging

Betsy Newmark has commented on the fact that with the GOP seeming to be doing well in early and absentee voting, it might therefore fare less well in voting on Election Day itself, which is when exit pollsters do their interviews. Those numbers, the manna of the 2004 "Ohio was stolen conspiracy theorists", will then suggest a bad night for the GOP, maybe depressing GOP turnout in the Rocky Mountain area and the West coast.

This is  all true. And there is another problem. The first states to report Tuesday night are Indiana and Kentucky. There are 5 vulnerable  GOP House incumbents in those two states. If the Democrats pick off 2 or 3 right away, that could also lend some credence to the the building wave  theory among the left leaning media, that might also depress turnout in the West.

The conservative base probably realizes that exit polling is not to be trusted, after the experience of 2004. But it wouldn't hurt to prepare for early bad news, and not be discouraged.

Richard Baehr  11 2 06

Betsy Newmark has commented on the fact that with the GOP seeming to be doing well in early and absentee voting, it might therefore fare less well in voting on Election Day itself, which is when exit pollsters do their interviews. Those numbers, the manna of the 2004 "Ohio was stolen conspiracy theorists", will then suggest a bad night for the GOP, maybe depressing GOP turnout in the Rocky Mountain area and the West coast.

This is  all true. And there is another problem. The first states to report Tuesday night are Indiana and Kentucky. There are 5 vulnerable  GOP House incumbents in those two states. If the Democrats pick off 2 or 3 right away, that could also lend some credence to the the building wave  theory among the left leaning media, that might also depress turnout in the West.

The conservative base probably realizes that exit polling is not to be trusted, after the experience of 2004. But it wouldn't hurt to prepare for early bad news, and not be discouraged.

Richard Baehr  11 2 06