Are American voters stupid?

If the polls are right Americans will vote for national military defeat on November 7 —— which would be very stupid indeed. Question: Are voters really going for defeat? I just don't believe it.

Americans were willing to support  fourteen years of fighting in Vietnam, with twenty times more US casualties, before a Democrat Congress decided to abandon our allies to their horrible fate. The War on Terror began in earnest five years ago on September 11, 2001. We have lost many good fighting men and women since then. But have Americans really lost their determination and staying power since Vietnam? It is hard to believe.

What to make of the polls, then? One possibility is that GOP—leaning voters are thoroughly disgusted by the pollsters and media. I know that I don't answer their phone calls any more. Conservatives are now so alienated from the media that they just won't play their games. But they are also too polite to yell at them. So they just don't answer poll questions any more.

The liberals, on the other hand, want to boost their side's morale, and are happy to tell the liberal media/poll organizations what's on their minds. But conservatives know the media has switched sides. We can't change them, but we don't have to help them either.

All the statistical methods in the world can't make up for "selective non—responding" by conservative voters. We are people who can't be sampled. But we will vote.

So my guess is that we're in for a welcome surprise come Election Day. I don't know that to be true, and I could be wrong. But I don't think so.

James Lewis   10 27 06

If the polls are right Americans will vote for national military defeat on November 7 —— which would be very stupid indeed. Question: Are voters really going for defeat? I just don't believe it.

Americans were willing to support  fourteen years of fighting in Vietnam, with twenty times more US casualties, before a Democrat Congress decided to abandon our allies to their horrible fate. The War on Terror began in earnest five years ago on September 11, 2001. We have lost many good fighting men and women since then. But have Americans really lost their determination and staying power since Vietnam? It is hard to believe.

What to make of the polls, then? One possibility is that GOP—leaning voters are thoroughly disgusted by the pollsters and media. I know that I don't answer their phone calls any more. Conservatives are now so alienated from the media that they just won't play their games. But they are also too polite to yell at them. So they just don't answer poll questions any more.

The liberals, on the other hand, want to boost their side's morale, and are happy to tell the liberal media/poll organizations what's on their minds. But conservatives know the media has switched sides. We can't change them, but we don't have to help them either.

All the statistical methods in the world can't make up for "selective non—responding" by conservative voters. We are people who can't be sampled. But we will vote.

So my guess is that we're in for a welcome surprise come Election Day. I don't know that to be true, and I could be wrong. But I don't think so.

James Lewis   10 27 06