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October 1, 2006

An alarm signal from Rafsanjani?

It'll be a cold day in Hell when the BBC recognizes the threat of Iranian nukes. Well, it's just happened. But Hell must be getting near Absolute Zero  for Ayatollah Rafsanjani to be originating the warning from Tehran.  His message to the world? It sure sounds like:

Help me! — my enemy Ahmadinejad is serious about nukes.

Here's the story.

Iran mulled nuclear bomb in 1988, By Frances Harrison, BBC News, Tehran

Ayatollah Khomeini wrote the letter during the Iran—Iraq war
A letter from 1988 in which Iran's top commander says Iran could need a nuclear bomb to win the war against Iraq has come to light in Tehran.

The commander is quoted in the letter, written by the father of the Iranian revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, to top officials in the final days of the war.

It has only now been made public — by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The letter seems at odds with Tehran's statements that Iran is not seeking a bomb because it is against Islam.

Now letters from High Pandjandrum Khomeini don't just "come to light" in Tehran. This is like an email from Allah. They only leak a missive from Khomeini if they have a very specific purpose. And this one isn't hard to guess.

Rafsanjani is telling the world that madcap President Ahmadinejad believes he has Khomeini's green light for making and probably using nukes. Why did Rafsanjani leak the letter now? Because he is in a life—and—death struggle with Ahmadinejad and his personal guru Yazdi, who is completely around the bend. If Ahmadinejad and Yazdi win a majority in the December elections for the "Assembly of Experts," they will have total control over the regime. If they are as dangerous as they seem, that means trouble.

Rafsanjani seems less of a risk—taker than the Ahmadinejad faction, at least marginally. But margins are important in nuclear gamesmanship. It is likely that Rafsanjani has communication channels to the US, Israel and Europe to explain his message. It might be: Don't attack us before December. It might be: Here is how to weaken Ahmadinejad. It might be disinformation, because that's a specialty of the Mullahs, one and all. Or it might be real enough.

The fact that the BBC reported this is important. Yes, the Bolshie Beeb is staffed with screaming Lefties when it comes to George Bush and Iraq, but they are also owned by the goverment, and are therefore a recognized channel for important news leaks. So when the BBC "testifies against its ideological interest" by being serious about Iranian nukes, that message is likely to come from 10 Downing Street.

All this is mind—reading, of course, so be warned: It could be a coincidence. But I'll bet it's not.

James Lewis   10 01 06

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