Good news for the GOP from an unlikely source

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John Zogby has released a new set of his Internet polls on the Senate races. Zogby once had a pretty decent reputation, but lost it* with many miscalls in the most recent national elections, and extreme partisanship: he is clearly a Bush hater.

To be sure, there is no pro—GOP bias in his polls. His new results are
nonetheless encouraging for Republicans. Rick Santorum is down only 4% in Pennsylvania, the closest poll yet for this race.  George Allen is now down** 7% in Virginia. Allen may have bottomed after the macaca nonsense. Santorum outclassed Bob Casey in their nationally televised debate, and has a big money advantage. 

In Tennessee's open seat seat, the GOP candidate Bob Corker is ahead by 2%, and Jim Talent is ahead by 4% in Missouri. The results in these two southern/border states are consistent with other recent polls in these states.  In New Jersey, the Bob Menendez/Tom Kean race is even.  Kean has led in most other recent surveys, and scandal seems to be engulfing Menendez.

Perhaps the Democrats will ditch Menendez for Frank Lautenberg if his troubles start to seriously endangering his chances, so that Lautenberg can fill two seats as a substitute candidate in the Senate. In Ohio, Mike DeWine is down 4%, closer than other  recent polls, and he has a big money advantage over his challenger Sherrod Brown.

The Democrats will need to defend several seats, a situation that is different than the battle for the House.  In Michigan, GOP candidate Mike Bouchard is down 6% to Debbie Stabenow, a lead that can not be considered safe for the incumbent, in a state where Democrats are on the defensive for a terrible state economy. If the Tigers continue to blow away their once safe lead in the American League Central division, the locals may need to blame somebody — perhaps Stabenow or Governor Jennifer Grantholm.  Don't laugh — there is 
plenty of evidence that local sports teams' success is good for incumbents (John Lindsay in New York in 1969 is one example).

Democrats have bigger leads in Washington State (8%) and in the open seat race in Minnesota (9%).  Joe Lieberman also leads in Connecticut  by 4%. There may be pressure from the net—roots crowd for the Democratic Party to start spending money for Ned Lamont. This diversion of resources to a race between two Democrats  also helps the GOP.

*For more on Zogby, see my 2004 article.

** Readers Bill B. and Jim T. corrected our earlier misreading of this poll, attributing the lead to Allen. Bill adds that macaca stories continue to be run, as can be seen via a Google search. We apprecioate the correction. One other poll out same day shows Allen up 4%:

Richard Baehr   9 11 06

John Zogby has released a new set of his Internet polls on the Senate races. Zogby once had a pretty decent reputation, but lost it* with many miscalls in the most recent national elections, and extreme partisanship: he is clearly a Bush hater.

To be sure, there is no pro—GOP bias in his polls. His new results are
nonetheless encouraging for Republicans. Rick Santorum is down only 4% in Pennsylvania, the closest poll yet for this race.  George Allen is now down** 7% in Virginia. Allen may have bottomed after the macaca nonsense. Santorum outclassed Bob Casey in their nationally televised debate, and has a big money advantage. 

In Tennessee's open seat seat, the GOP candidate Bob Corker is ahead by 2%, and Jim Talent is ahead by 4% in Missouri. The results in these two southern/border states are consistent with other recent polls in these states.  In New Jersey, the Bob Menendez/Tom Kean race is even.  Kean has led in most other recent surveys, and scandal seems to be engulfing Menendez.

Perhaps the Democrats will ditch Menendez for Frank Lautenberg if his troubles start to seriously endangering his chances, so that Lautenberg can fill two seats as a substitute candidate in the Senate. In Ohio, Mike DeWine is down 4%, closer than other  recent polls, and he has a big money advantage over his challenger Sherrod Brown.

The Democrats will need to defend several seats, a situation that is different than the battle for the House.  In Michigan, GOP candidate Mike Bouchard is down 6% to Debbie Stabenow, a lead that can not be considered safe for the incumbent, in a state where Democrats are on the defensive for a terrible state economy. If the Tigers continue to blow away their once safe lead in the American League Central division, the locals may need to blame somebody — perhaps Stabenow or Governor Jennifer Grantholm.  Don't laugh — there is 
plenty of evidence that local sports teams' success is good for incumbents (John Lindsay in New York in 1969 is one example).

Democrats have bigger leads in Washington State (8%) and in the open seat race in Minnesota (9%).  Joe Lieberman also leads in Connecticut  by 4%. There may be pressure from the net—roots crowd for the Democratic Party to start spending money for Ned Lamont. This diversion of resources to a race between two Democrats  also helps the GOP.

*For more on Zogby, see my 2004 article.

** Readers Bill B. and Jim T. corrected our earlier misreading of this poll, attributing the lead to Allen. Bill adds that macaca stories continue to be run, as can be seen via a Google search. We apprecioate the correction. One other poll out same day shows Allen up 4%:

Richard Baehr   9 11 06