Bush losing Hispanics?

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So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60—65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more. 

More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).

Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration —— appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics —— and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.

Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.

The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the  right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia  after Pete Wilson's immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).

That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP's dream of being a majority party this year.

Richard Baehr   5 21 06

So claims the Washington Post. The GOP is on the verge of a major electoral disaster. Each week more House seats once considered safe (60—65% for Bush in 04) are now on the endangered list for incumbent GOP congressmen. The list is probably over 50 at this point,and may grow some more. 

More GOP senators are now in trouble. Add Jon Kyl of Arizoan to the list. He is now but 7 points ahead of a very wealthy competitor (last three polls showed him up 29, then 15, now 7). Seven GOP Senate seats are at risk and 3 Demcratic seats (maybe 4 if Mfume wins Democratic primary in Maryland).

Bush tried to thread the needle on immigration —— appeal to both conservatives and Hispanics —— and failed. He needed to get this bill through before passions were ignited, but his political weakness prevented that.

Many Hispanics apparently were radicalized by the mass demonstrations, and no longer are open to any appeal for a balanced immigration plan.

The demonstrations also hardened attitudes on the  right. If Bush is forced to choose, and goes with his conservative base, he likely writes off the chance of a 40% or more GOP Hispanic vote share for decades, and the result will be similar to what happened in Califronia  after Pete Wilson's immigration referendums (a 20% GOP voting share of Hispanics).

That spells big trouble for the GOP all over the country. Hispanics were 7% of national vote in 04, and will likely be 9% in 08. This group split 4 to 3 of the 7% in 04. If they split 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 of the 9% in 08, the GOP could be toast in the Presidential race. We could be seeing the end of the GOP's dream of being a majority party this year.

Richard Baehr   5 21 06