Why Trump Might Win It All

The polls show that Rubio and Kasich would have an easier path to defeating Hillary, while ideologue Cruz and erratic Trump have a bumpy road.

But on March 15, primary voters rejected Rubio and accepted Trump, except in Ohio.

All may not be lost, however, if Trump outflanks Cruz and becomes the nominee at the convention.  Let's flip our minds 180 degrees and inquire how he might pull it off in a head-to-head matchup against Hillary.

Here are some of the factors that might propel Trump to victory all the way to the White House.

1. Hillary and Trump have their own set of moral baggage.

Sorry to sound negative about our country, but several writers have observed it already.  Trump's the product of culture rot, professional wrestling, and authoritarian Evangelical pastors and church culture.  Gobs of Evangelicals support him, after all.

However, Hillary's "husband" Bill Clinton had his shenanigans in the Oval Office.  Their marriage seems a sham.  How can Hillary claim the moral high ground over Trump?

Either way, make America degrade again can apply to both.  But America doesn't care.  She's been slouching towards Gomorrah since the 1960s.  It's a tie between the two candidates.

2. Trump's TV personality and fame may outdo Hillary's TV exposure.

To build on the first reason, Trump emerges from the swamp of crass TV culture, so his name recognition is nearly universal.  And the news media gleefully give him more TV time than all the other candidates combined.

Hillary has name recognition, but maybe not as much as Trump does.

Will her negatives outweigh or fall short of Trump's negatives?

This fame factor could help propel him into the White House.

3. Appearances matter, too.

He may not be all that handsome, but his grown kids are all right, by current standards of beauty.  TV viewers won't have to swallow hard when they see his kids.  (Imagine how pop culture would gag if they were ugly!)  The slight diversity comes in with his daughter, who is Jewish.  Charming.  A handsome first family is always a winner.

Hillary is also aging and not very attractive.  Hillary's daughter Chelsea seems classy enough, and she married a Jew.  Diversity.  But will her involvement in the Clinton Foundation hurt her?  Will Hillary's "husband" drag her down?  He doesn't appear at very many rallies.

4. Trump is no hardcore ideologue, while Hillary is.

Reagan, a conservative, distanced himself, according to his autobiography, from these kinds of conservatives: "[r]ight wingers" (p. 153), "radical conservatives" (p. 171), "conservative diehards", "hard core conservatives" (p. 322), and "ultra pure conservatives" (p. 322).

Trump is erratic, but he may settle down; wherever he lands, those epithets won't apply to him.

Hillary has had to lurch really far left, thanks to Sanders.  America may be tired of perceived hard-liners, left or right.

If so, they will reject Hillary (or Sanders) and welcome Trump.

5. Trump may indeed be drawing Reagan Democrats to his cause.

Let's assume that thirty-three percent claim to be conservative, twenty-five percent liberal, and the forty-two percent remaining nondescript.

After defeating incumbent Gov. Brown in 1966 by a margin of 58-42, Reagan understood who his supporters were.  He wrote in his autobiography: "In fact, analysis of the election returns showed that most of my support didn't come from right wingers or even conservative Republicans, but from middle-of-the-road voters in both parties" (p. 153).

Reagan reinforced those coalitions in 1980 and built even bigger ones in 1984.

What if Trump can draw the bulk of the forty-two percent, along with millions of thirty-three percent (though not all) and a slice of the twenty-five percent centrist liberals?

Yes, Democrats may be voting for Trump to cause a form of Operation Chaos during the primaries, but are all of them doing that?  Maybe most of them really like him.

They may move away from Hillary and give the new guy his chance in November.

6. Trump is a flexible negotiator, while Hillary is a compromising politician.

What does the roughly forty-two percent who claim neither to be conservative or liberal think about his pre-negotiation strategy (around thirty-three percent claims to be conservative, and twenty-five percent liberal)?

You and I are not flexible about a list of issues. But we belong to the thirty-three percent. Will everyone else give Trump's flexibility a chance in November?

Hillary has revealed nothing but incompetence while she turned the levers of power in the State Department. She has no grounds for claiming flexibility.

7. Trump is an outsider, while Hillary is an insider.

On the presidential level, anti-incumbent fire is raging across the land, and Hillary is attached to incumbent Obama's hip.  America may want a new start with an outsider.

The bottom line equation: Outsider = good; insider = bad.

Hillary is on the bad side.

8. Trump can bring in outside businessmen to help him clean up the bureaucracy, while Hillary can't or won't.

When Gov. Reagan assumed the reins of power in Sacramento, he brought in a team of businessmen to assess how inefficient the bureaucracy was.  They were known as the "Kitchen Cabinet."  They made scores of recommendations (Autobiography, Chapter 23).

Trump said in his acceptance speech on March 15 that he would bring in many businessmen to help him with the government.  If so, no doubt they will uncover countless rat nests.

What business ties does Hillary have?  Very few, and certainly not many who haven't been tainted by the Clinton Foundation and alleged pay-to-play.

9. Hillary is more politically compromised than Trump is.

This factor is the most important one explaining why he might win it all.

Sure, Trump is politically compromised, but his version comes from the outside politics; he's never been a politician and wielded his insider government power to get his way.

Hillary's compromise does come from the inside.  She has used her place in government to bestow favors.  Her real-world incompetence as secretary of state will seem "yuuuge" standing against Trump's abstract policy deficiencies.  She may narrowly escape an indictment – or be indicted.

In any case, I can imagine his saying unapologetically and bluntly to Madam Secretary in a debate, "You're a liar!  You should be in prison!," smirking, not caring a bit what people think.  He could add: "You think my marriages are bad?  What about your sham of a marriage?"  And "Trump University and the lawsuit?  What about the server and the FBI investigation?  And the Clinton Foundation!  You took donations from me, you shrill shill!  I own you!"

Political Corruption v. Political Corruption, America will choose outsider businessman Trump over Washington insider Hillary.

Let's wrap it up.

Trump will always have the full weight of the media against him.

He appears to be a long shot – for now.  The polls show Hillary defeating him – for now.

You and I are nervous about Trump.

But nothing has been able to stop the tornado so far. Maybe Hillary won't, either, as her political corruption and incompetent tenure as secretary of state grow in the public's eye.

I certainly have not liked Trump, but I have to weigh carefully the SCOTUS vacancy when I vote in November.  That factor alone may make many conservative purists drop their objections and vote for him.  He may improve on the campaign trail, too.

A warning, though.  Before he steps into the sacred and historic White House, election chaos will run rampant throughout the land, which will make Bush v. Gore look mild.

After all is said and done, however, he might just win it all.

James Arlandson's website is Live as Free people, where he has posted Reagan's balanced and reasonable politics, Gov. Reagan's Secret Missions (his outreach to minorities), and How conservatives can finally read America accurately (for a change).

The polls show that Rubio and Kasich would have an easier path to defeating Hillary, while ideologue Cruz and erratic Trump have a bumpy road.

But on March 15, primary voters rejected Rubio and accepted Trump, except in Ohio.

All may not be lost, however, if Trump outflanks Cruz and becomes the nominee at the convention.  Let's flip our minds 180 degrees and inquire how he might pull it off in a head-to-head matchup against Hillary.

Here are some of the factors that might propel Trump to victory all the way to the White House.

1. Hillary and Trump have their own set of moral baggage.

Sorry to sound negative about our country, but several writers have observed it already.  Trump's the product of culture rot, professional wrestling, and authoritarian Evangelical pastors and church culture.  Gobs of Evangelicals support him, after all.

However, Hillary's "husband" Bill Clinton had his shenanigans in the Oval Office.  Their marriage seems a sham.  How can Hillary claim the moral high ground over Trump?

Either way, make America degrade again can apply to both.  But America doesn't care.  She's been slouching towards Gomorrah since the 1960s.  It's a tie between the two candidates.

2. Trump's TV personality and fame may outdo Hillary's TV exposure.

To build on the first reason, Trump emerges from the swamp of crass TV culture, so his name recognition is nearly universal.  And the news media gleefully give him more TV time than all the other candidates combined.

Hillary has name recognition, but maybe not as much as Trump does.

Will her negatives outweigh or fall short of Trump's negatives?

This fame factor could help propel him into the White House.

3. Appearances matter, too.

He may not be all that handsome, but his grown kids are all right, by current standards of beauty.  TV viewers won't have to swallow hard when they see his kids.  (Imagine how pop culture would gag if they were ugly!)  The slight diversity comes in with his daughter, who is Jewish.  Charming.  A handsome first family is always a winner.

Hillary is also aging and not very attractive.  Hillary's daughter Chelsea seems classy enough, and she married a Jew.  Diversity.  But will her involvement in the Clinton Foundation hurt her?  Will Hillary's "husband" drag her down?  He doesn't appear at very many rallies.

4. Trump is no hardcore ideologue, while Hillary is.

Reagan, a conservative, distanced himself, according to his autobiography, from these kinds of conservatives: "[r]ight wingers" (p. 153), "radical conservatives" (p. 171), "conservative diehards", "hard core conservatives" (p. 322), and "ultra pure conservatives" (p. 322).

Trump is erratic, but he may settle down; wherever he lands, those epithets won't apply to him.

Hillary has had to lurch really far left, thanks to Sanders.  America may be tired of perceived hard-liners, left or right.

If so, they will reject Hillary (or Sanders) and welcome Trump.

5. Trump may indeed be drawing Reagan Democrats to his cause.

Let's assume that thirty-three percent claim to be conservative, twenty-five percent liberal, and the forty-two percent remaining nondescript.

After defeating incumbent Gov. Brown in 1966 by a margin of 58-42, Reagan understood who his supporters were.  He wrote in his autobiography: "In fact, analysis of the election returns showed that most of my support didn't come from right wingers or even conservative Republicans, but from middle-of-the-road voters in both parties" (p. 153).

Reagan reinforced those coalitions in 1980 and built even bigger ones in 1984.

What if Trump can draw the bulk of the forty-two percent, along with millions of thirty-three percent (though not all) and a slice of the twenty-five percent centrist liberals?

Yes, Democrats may be voting for Trump to cause a form of Operation Chaos during the primaries, but are all of them doing that?  Maybe most of them really like him.

They may move away from Hillary and give the new guy his chance in November.

6. Trump is a flexible negotiator, while Hillary is a compromising politician.

What does the roughly forty-two percent who claim neither to be conservative or liberal think about his pre-negotiation strategy (around thirty-three percent claims to be conservative, and twenty-five percent liberal)?

You and I are not flexible about a list of issues. But we belong to the thirty-three percent. Will everyone else give Trump's flexibility a chance in November?

Hillary has revealed nothing but incompetence while she turned the levers of power in the State Department. She has no grounds for claiming flexibility.

7. Trump is an outsider, while Hillary is an insider.

On the presidential level, anti-incumbent fire is raging across the land, and Hillary is attached to incumbent Obama's hip.  America may want a new start with an outsider.

The bottom line equation: Outsider = good; insider = bad.

Hillary is on the bad side.

8. Trump can bring in outside businessmen to help him clean up the bureaucracy, while Hillary can't or won't.

When Gov. Reagan assumed the reins of power in Sacramento, he brought in a team of businessmen to assess how inefficient the bureaucracy was.  They were known as the "Kitchen Cabinet."  They made scores of recommendations (Autobiography, Chapter 23).

Trump said in his acceptance speech on March 15 that he would bring in many businessmen to help him with the government.  If so, no doubt they will uncover countless rat nests.

What business ties does Hillary have?  Very few, and certainly not many who haven't been tainted by the Clinton Foundation and alleged pay-to-play.

9. Hillary is more politically compromised than Trump is.

This factor is the most important one explaining why he might win it all.

Sure, Trump is politically compromised, but his version comes from the outside politics; he's never been a politician and wielded his insider government power to get his way.

Hillary's compromise does come from the inside.  She has used her place in government to bestow favors.  Her real-world incompetence as secretary of state will seem "yuuuge" standing against Trump's abstract policy deficiencies.  She may narrowly escape an indictment – or be indicted.

In any case, I can imagine his saying unapologetically and bluntly to Madam Secretary in a debate, "You're a liar!  You should be in prison!," smirking, not caring a bit what people think.  He could add: "You think my marriages are bad?  What about your sham of a marriage?"  And "Trump University and the lawsuit?  What about the server and the FBI investigation?  And the Clinton Foundation!  You took donations from me, you shrill shill!  I own you!"

Political Corruption v. Political Corruption, America will choose outsider businessman Trump over Washington insider Hillary.

Let's wrap it up.

Trump will always have the full weight of the media against him.

He appears to be a long shot – for now.  The polls show Hillary defeating him – for now.

You and I are nervous about Trump.

But nothing has been able to stop the tornado so far. Maybe Hillary won't, either, as her political corruption and incompetent tenure as secretary of state grow in the public's eye.

I certainly have not liked Trump, but I have to weigh carefully the SCOTUS vacancy when I vote in November.  That factor alone may make many conservative purists drop their objections and vote for him.  He may improve on the campaign trail, too.

A warning, though.  Before he steps into the sacred and historic White House, election chaos will run rampant throughout the land, which will make Bush v. Gore look mild.

After all is said and done, however, he might just win it all.

James Arlandson's website is Live as Free people, where he has posted Reagan's balanced and reasonable politics, Gov. Reagan's Secret Missions (his outreach to minorities), and How conservatives can finally read America accurately (for a change).