Obama Chose Dishonor
President Obama had to choose between dishonor and war and he chose dishonor. Now we will have war. He has dishonored U.S. allies in the Middle East, including Israel and the Persian Gulf states, by abandoning their security concerns regarding a nuclear Iran by believing that appeasing Iran is the only way to avoid war.
These words are those of Churchill after the Munich Agreement was signed when Britain and France believed that handing Czechoslovakia to Hitler was the only way to save the world from another war. It is regarded as the shameful culmination of the Allies refusal to confront Nazi aggression and gave Hitler what he wanted in exchange for his verbal promise of "peace in our time" as Chamberlain called it.
After the Munich Agreement, Churchill gave a speech in the House of Commons on the future consequences to Europe and the world of the agreement which he called "total and unmitigated defeat". Following the Geneva Agreement, these warnings ring as true now as they did then.
We cannot consider the abandonment of U.S. allies only in the light of what happened the last few weeks. This agreement in Geneva is the culmination of five years of uninterrupted retreat of U.S. power in the Middle East under Obama. For five years the president has been betraying Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE while accommodating enemies and tyrants like Syria's Assad, Iran's Khamenei, and Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood. Five years of eager searching for any perceived moderate leader in Iran, ending with Obama's naïve conviction that he has found one in the smiling new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani despite the fact that past evidence proves that Rouhani has been a liar and a cheat in previous negotiations with the West about suspending uranium enrichment.
Let us be clear. This agreement is a total U.S. defeat and Iranian victory. It is the first step toward a new U.S. policy of containment of Iran's nuclear program. Despite desperate propaganda by Obama, in reality the U.S. and the West have given the Iranians the implied right to contnue enrichment when it agreed to let Iran continue enriching its uranium to 3.5%. The Iranians will be able to maintain their nuclear program and continue to enrich uranium while the Americans and their allies loosen their economic noose around Iran and allow it to have access to at least 10 billion dollars of assets which can be used to continue financing terrorist activities in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iraq as well as to sustain the mullah's tyrannical regime. Moreover, once the sanctions are loosened and the Europeans and China resume making money from Iran, it is unrealistic to believe they will be reinstated.
Obama, Kerry, and other White House officials' panicky claims over the last two weeks that threatening to impose additional sanctions on Iran will be a "march to war" reassured the Iranians that Obama was desperate for any kind of deal. Defamatory attacks against legitimate Israeli concerns about a potential bad deal by calling them "warmongers" and keeping many of the details of the negotiations from them, as well as U.S. reluctance to attack Syria, has told the Israelis that there is no longer any credible U.S. military option against Iran.
Israel is not Czechoslovakia. Israel was abandoned by its ally but it is not broken and will never be silent. Israel is a nuclear power and can attack Iran on its own the way did the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear reactors. The only obstacle is that Obama has tied Israeli hands for the next six months of negotiations. By then Iran will be a month away from building a bomb.
Knowing that Obama will never attack Iran militarily and will do his best to delay Israel from attacking Iran in time will have disastrous consequences in the Middle East. Many countries in the Middle East like Qatar and Iraq will make the best terms they can with the triumphant Iran in the hope of protection from annihilation. Many others like Egypt and Turkey will gravitate to the Russians and the Chinese for military cooperation and nuclear reactors. Others like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will turn to the Pakistanis for a nuclear bomb. A new nuclear arms race has just begun. Rather than "peace in our time" Obama and his allies have given us a potential nuclear war in our time. The Middle East is not Europe and Iran is not the ex-Soviet Union. It is a suicidal Shiite state alongside suicidal Sunni states in the powder keg called the Middle East which is not susceptible to the cold war discipline of deterrence.
Meanwhile, Iranian influence and stature will grow while U.S. influence and stature as a reliable ally will diminish. Eventually under this president, the U.S. will retreat, leaving a mess behind. And even after Obama, the U.S. will not be trusted again.
Obama and the other nations at Geneva do not understand the dangers of accepting Iranian status as a threshold nuclear state. Having a nuclear Iran is not only disastrous to Israel but also to the U.S. and the world. Just imagine what would have happened if Hitler had acquired a nuclear weapon before Germany was defeated militarily. Iran, just as Hitler at the time, has a design not only to kill Jews, but also to rule the world by controlling the oil-rich Gulf nations which control 50 percent of the world's oil supply. The promise of "containing" a nuclear Iran by convincing them not to use the nuclear weapon will not work since the threat of nuclear attack will be enough for Iran to dictate oil prices, as well as controlling oil supplies to the U.S. and Europe.
Then, the only option available to the U.S. and the world will be to fight Iran, perhaps resulting in a nuclear war which could destroy the oil resources and many countries in the process.
Shoula Romano Horing is an Israeli born and raised; Her blog: www.shoularomanohoring.com