June 29, 2012
Obamacare: 'Things are now up for Grabs'
[This week, Clarice's Pieces is appearing on Friday.] "[I]n the 1980s, the political psychologist Philip E. Tetlock began systematically quizzing 284 political experts - most of whom were political science Ph.D.'s - on dozens of basic questions, like whether a country would go to war, leave NATO or change its boundaries or a political leader would remain in office. His book "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?" won the A.P.S.A.'s prize for the best book published on government, politics or international affairs. Professor Tetlock's main finding? Chimps randomly throwing darts at the possible outcomes would have done almost as well as the experts." You could pretty much say this about the Obamacare case. Hundreds of pages of analysis and predictions and few if any reflected the final, rather surprising outcome: Four ,and potentially five justices if one reads Roberts carefully, have for the first time since the FDR court recognized there are...(Read Full Article)