February 9, 2012
Will 'Known Unknowns' Put Romney into the White House?
In 2002, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made what has become one of his most famous remarks: [T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. Though mocked by some, Rumsfeld's comments actually revealed a shrewd and concise understanding of a decision-maker's attempt to logically predict the future based upon incomplete information. It might be useful for us to apply Rumsfeld's analytical method to the election of 2012. There are certain things about the election that "we know we know," and there are certain things that we know we do not know. We know that the Republican Party will nominate a weak candidate. Barring any unforeseen tragedy such as a plane crash or heart attack -- "an unknown unknown" -- the GOP candidate will be Mitt Romney. We know that Romney will not energize the conservative base. We know that Romney will appear stilted and...(Read Full Article)