November 6, 2011
How might Obama win in 2012 - and what would happen next?
Several readers have disputed the plausibility of my new book, The Blast of War: A Narrative History of the Third World War, on the grounds that it features the re-election of Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election. While I would agree that, given present world conditions, it appears more likely than not that President Obama will be defeated next year, there is still, as sketched out in the book, a plausible path by which he might yet win. Before we explore how Obama could win, we ought to begin by looking at why he is likely to lose: not only has he presided over an anemic economic recovery, but he has also proven to be a feckless and disengaged leader, seemingly far-removed from the concerns of everyday people. Nor should the left look to the Occupy Wall Street movement as the harbinger of a majority: as I am fond of reminding its supporters, the net electoral result of all of the protests of the 1960's was that in 1968, nearly 60% of American voters cast...(Read Full Article)