Obama's Numbers

I've run into a rather strange and obnoxious trope in various comment threads over the past few weeks.  A usually anonymous poster wails that there's no point in campaigning against Obama due to the fact that he has a certain percentage of the vote "locked up."  This is generally stated as around 40%, sometimes the lone figure, sometimes "35 to 40%."  Whatever the case, the poster announces that all Obama needs is to pick up 11% and he's got in it the bag.  And, you know, Rahm and George will take care of that for him, so why bother? Never is the number explicitly broken down into discrete groups.  No details are offered, no references given.  At the most, a vague reference is made to ACORN or Chicago graveyards as the source of such votes.  (I suppose they could be thinking of O's favorability rating, which is around 40%, [Whoops! It's been heading down], but they don't say so, and no direct correlation exists between "favorability" and actual...(Read Full Article)