Top Ten Reasons Why Michele Bachmann Could Win the 2012 Republican Nomination
1. She is a fundraising powerhouse. She raised more money in the first quarter of this year than any other member of Congress except Speaker Boehner.
2. She has a loyal base. She is the only true conservative in the race (except for Herman Cain) and would be the obvious choice of the Tea Partiers and grassroots. And if anybody knows how to organize, it's the Tea Parties, as we found out in '09 and '10 to the Democrats' dismay. If they get behind her, there's no stopping that train.
3. She has the right amount of name recognition. At 60%, she has name recognition high enough to attract significant attention in the media and enough to catch on among primary voters, but not too much so that she is still a fresh face. Romney's recognition might be high enough to be a detriment to his campaign, as he is seen as same-old same-old by many primary voters.
4. She has the second highest positive intensity score. At 22%, she excites the conservative grassroots -- the Tea Party, social conservatives and evangelical Christians, fiscal conservatives and small businessmen, the military, and constitutionalists. She surpasses Romney, Pawlenty, Palin, Ron Paul, and all the other candidates except Herman Cain. While Cain has 25%, he does not have the name recognition (38%), experience (zero in the government), nor fundraising prowess to be competitive. Michele Bachmann is strong in all the areas Cain lacks.
5. The percentage of people who strongly disapprove of Obama is high. As of this writing, the number of people that strongly disapprove of Obama is 36%. That number has been as high as 47% in the past. Many establishment Republicans claim that Bachmann could be a lightning rod for criticism and that too many people don't like her. This statistic shows that the number of people who strongly dislike Obama outweighs any dislike for a conservative Republican nominee like Bachmann. Let's dispel any myths that a staunch conservative cannot beat the President, especially since he is a radical liberal.
6. The percentage of people who strongly disapprove of Bachmann is low. Among Republicans who recognize her, Bachmann's strongly unfavorable rate is only three percent, and her unfavorable rate is thirteen percent, lower than Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson, Jon Huntsman, and Mitt Romney.
7. She is, potentially, the only woman in the race. If Palin doesn't run as she is expected not to, the conservative women will naturally flock to Bachmann. She is charismatic and attractive. She captivates audiences and can fire up a crowd. Bachmann will attract attention and stand out amongst all the other presidential hopefuls making history as the first Republican woman to run for President.
8. She carries little baggage. Mitt Romney has "Romneycare" and lacks trust with social conservatives. Newt Gingrich supported cap and trade in the past (as seen in a political ad with Nancy Pelosi), insulted Republicans by dissing the Paul Ryan plan, and has three messy marriages. Pawlenty also supported cap and trade and, along with supporting a tax increase as Governor of Minnesota, said that "government has to be more proactive, more aggressive" and "the era of small government is over."[i] Do these men sound like small government conservatives to you?
9. She has a great story. She is a businesswoman who worked her way up the ladder. She is a mom with five children who opened up her home to twenty-three foster children. She is an underdog who can beat the odds, and a real life example of the American dream.
10. She is widely underestimated. Her opponents, in both the Republican primary and Obama himself, truly believe that there is no way she can possibly win. This is one of her greatest strengths. I seem to recall another underestimated conservative who went on to win the presidency in 1980 and is now regarded as one of the greatest presidents in American history.
Michele Bachmann is the only candidate in this race so far who truly contrasts with Obama in every way. In order to beat the President, Republicans need to offer a distinct alternative. We need a person who clearly contrasts with Obama both in personality and style as well as ideology. Obama is a man, Bachmann is a woman. Obama is calm and cool, Bachmann is energetic, refreshing, and exciting. He is a staunch liberal and she is a strong conservative. The other candidates share things in common with the president: they are all male, and most have at least some views that overlap (RomneyCare which is fairly or not seen as similar to ObamaCare, cap and trade, anti-Paul Ryan, etc), Herman Cain being the only exception. We can't have a wishy washy candidate who shares some of the same views as Obama. We need to offer a completely and identifiably different alternative to the general electorate, most of whom are tired of the current President's liberal policies. Michele Bachmann is this candidate.
Also keep in mind that 2012 is shaping up to be an unusual presidential election cycle. The Republican field is thin and unusually weak, providing the perfect climate for an underdog to take the nomination. In addition, the Republican primary process has changed significantly; the advent of the Tea Party and the increasing political power of social networking has changed the conventional way of campaigning forever, giving a candidate like Bachmann all the more chance of becoming the Republican nominee.
Indeed it seems Michele Bachmann will be off to an excellent start -- she plays strong with the social conservatives in Iowa, and the fact that she was born there is a huge plus. She has more experience than Obama had when he became President -- in 2012, she'll have been in office for six years -- he was a Senator for one and a half before he started running for President. She should turn the tables on Obama by using something similar to his 2008 campaign strategy -- be the candidate of youth, of new ideas, of hope and change from Obama's America. Be the anti-Obama, the conservative Obama. Get Americans involved, excite the population. Make Obama the same-old same-old candidate, the candidate of yesterday like Obama made McCain.
So let's look at the facts; if Michele Bachmann runs, she could actually win this thing.