June 8, 2011
2012 is Not about Unemployment. It's about Oil.
With U3, the primary measure of US unemployment, languishing around nine percent, many in Big Media now say that the jobless rate will be a key determinant of next year's election outcome. But that's just a Democrat red herring. There is virtually no historical correlation between the level of unemployment and the margin of victory (or loss) for the incumbent political party. Even the unemployment trend matters little until the election year. Furthermore, as a mere symptom of economic disease, unemployment can be masked with economic quackery. For instance, an incumbent might entice foreign governments to boost global oil supplies temporarily. And if only the final year's trend affects an incumbent's reelection prospects, a cynical president might drive up unemployment for three years just to make it easier to reduce during the final few months of his first term in office. Which final months matter? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has published...(Read Full Article)