December 11, 2009
Can the GOP Win Back the House?
The Democrats hold 258 U.S. House seats, the Republicans 177. In the last two cycles (2006 and 2008), the Democrats gained a net 55 House seats. To win back control in 2010, the GOP will need to pick up a net 41 seats. Can they do it?It is likely that the GOP will lose some seats in the 2010 races. Even in the GOP sweep in 1994, when the party picked up a net 54 seats, Democrats won 4 GOP-held seats. The single most vulnerable Republican-held seat (in reality, the single most vulnerable seat for either party) is that of Joseph Cao in Louisiana-2, a district Barack Obama carried by 75%-23% in 2008 and where African-Americans make up 60% of the residents. The GOP will be hard-pressed to defend three open seats: Delaware's (Mike Castle), Illinois-10's (Mark Kirk), and Pennsylvania-6's (Jim Gerlach's). Obama won Delaware by 25%, Illinois-10 by 23%, and Pennsylvania-6 by 17%. Several Republican incumbents had tough races in 2008 and could face solid challenges again next year. Dave...(Read Full Article)