October 9, 2008
Can McCain Come Back?
Over the last few days, the national tracking polls, for the first time in a month (or since the Lehman Brothers collapse triggered the current stage in the financial crisis), have shown a small movement away from Barack Obama and toward John McCain. A 6.6% Obama lead in the RCP national average Monday was down to 5.1% Wednesday. The trend, however is mixed. Gallup gives Obama his biggest lead of the year at 11%, while Reuters, Hotline, and CBS, show the race in the 1-3% range. Even with margins of error, this range of results is pretty large. The state polls, on the other hand, have been quite favorable to Obama in the battleground states for weeks, and are consistent with a national polling lead of 6-7%. Obama now is in a commanding position with regard to the Electoral College. The state polls tend to lag the national tracking poll movement since they are not conducted as often, and if the national race is tightening, the state polls will also move a bit...(Read Full Article)