November 4, 2004

The real majority

By Thomas Lifson

The people have spoken. President Bush's convincing victory, supplemented by a fortified Republican majority in both houses of Congress, unmistakably reveals that America is making the kind of progress abhorrent to reactionary  'progressives,' and is trending conservative.

The magnitude of victory is even greater than the raw vote totals indicate, however. The extent of registration and voting fraud in obvious places like Philadelphia, where registration rolls jumped while population plummeted, and Franklin County (Columbus) Ohio, where registrants outnumbered eligible voters, and less obvious locales, such as rural South Dakota, is unknowable, but probably substantial.

Then there is the Media Effect. Evan Thomas, managing editor of Newsweek, revised his early estimate, that the liberal media would add 15 percentage points to Kerry's support, down to five percent. That strikes me as a fairly realistic figure for the year 2004. So make President Bush's total 57 percent and Kerry's 43 in a media bias—free environment.

For example, those Americans who paid close attention realized that John F. Kerry withdrew his fantastic claim to have spent Christmas in Cambodia, thereby admitting to lies about his war record. But because the bulk of the media did not focus the same degree of attention on this startling confession that they showered on unsubstantiated allegations about President Bush's National Guard Service or 'looted' high explosives, John F. Kerry did not lose as many votes over his prevarications as a Republican would have. Five points may be too modest an impact of this sort of silence.

Although talk radio, Fox News Channel, and the blogosphere have broken the legacy media's monopoly, they lack the reach to saturate the consciousness of the casual voters, who only pay attention at the end of the race. But by 2008, the landscape will be different.

Consider the trend lines. In another four years the broadcast network news operations will be lucky to be a shadow of their current selves. Newspaper circulation and profitability will continue to plummet. Already, layoffs in the newsrooms of America are happening in robust economies and newspaper monopoly markets like Dallas. Help wanted advertising, the most profitable revenue stream for the pulp press, is being devoured by a Monster.com, and Craig has it on his list. Department store display advertising is going the way of the department store, as America heads for Wal—Mart and Target to meet its fashion and hard goods needs.

Meanwhile, the percentage of the population with access to broadband internet service continues to climb. Universal broadband is on the horizon as surely as universal telephone service was in 1932. With access to continuously updated hyperlinked information, who bother with the trouble, delay, expense, and ink smudges of the left—leaning tree—killers of the daily press?

As the proprietor of every moderately successful blog knows, you obtain nationwide, even worldwide circulation with ease. No delivery trucks, no local affiliates, no newsstands needed. Just a server. And the wit to provide content. The barriers to entry are minimal. So the media monopoly is a dying beast. Good riddance.

IF a serious attempt is made to rein in voting fraud, requiring the same sort of identification from voters that they need to board an airplane, buy booze, or rent a video, and WHEN the trend lines express themselves more fully, the real conservative majority of America will be even more substantial.

A third factor completes the picture: religion. To the mystification and horror of coastal elitists and most Western Europeans, America is experiencing a religious revival. Evangelicals are a growing force, and they have turned out to vote as never before. Catholics, for the first time ever, have given a majority of their votes to the GOP. Although it is considered impolite to notice, we happen to be engaged in a religious war with radical Islam. A war for our survival. Religion in America will continue to flourish, and incidentally bear children whom they will raise with their own values.

The real majority is far more substantial than the few million votes separating Bush and Kerry totals. Given the tendency of the American left to flock to unhinged haters in times of stress, the prospects for Democrats chipping away at the real majority are not bright. Michael Moore, rich beyond his dreams, will continue to be an icon for this faction. Consumed with contempt for the majority, they will occupy a smug but shrinking niche of American life.

The smarter figures among them, people like Representative Harold Ford (TN) and Senator—elect Barack Obama (IL), do have a clue. It remains to be seen if they will prevail. If they do, the Democrats will rebound. But if Soros money and Hollywood glitter prevail, then Karl Rove's dream of fundamental political realignment will be realized.