June 25, 2004
Can the Democrats win back the Senate?
The Baehr Essentials There has been a series of articles in recent weeks suggesting that the Democrats are in surprisingly good shape to spring a major upset and win back control of the Senate. While not impossible, it is unlikely that this will occur. The major Senate races will be affected by the Presidential race. If either President Bush or Senator Kerry pulls away to a more decisive win (say 5 or 6% or more in the popular vote), there will certainly be a down—ticket effect. The pundits and professional politicians who have been touting a Democratic takeover of the Senate have tended to be most effusive in their enthusiasm during the weeks when Senator Kerry was doing well in the polls. At the moment, with the exception of an ABC/Washington Post poll that gives Kerry a 4 point lead in a three man race including Ralph Nader, all the other national polls show Bush ahead by from 1 to 10 points. I suspect the 10 point Bush lead (Harris poll), and the 4...(Read Full Article)