Battleground Polls and Conservative Strength

The latest Battleground Poll, compared with prior Battleground Polls, shows the percentage of Americans who describe themselves as “conservative” dropping.  The percentage is lower than almost any Battleground Poll in the last fifteen years.  The percentage of Americans who call themselves “liberal,” by contrast, is at an all-time high.  

Modification in the demographics of the poll sample may have something to do with the change.  Women form 53% of the sample, while women are 50.6% of the population.  Blacks are 13% of the Battleground sample, a smidgen more that the black percentage of the population.  As I noted a few years ago, the Battleground Poll has also increased the percentage of young adults in the sample, and the percentage of young adults in the sample rose just as the percentage of Americans describing themselves as “conservative” slipped a bit.

So what does the March 2014 Battleground Poll say about the “conservative / liberal” division of America?  Conservatives are still the overwhelming majority of Americans, as every single Battleground Poll in the last fifteen years has shown: 56% of Americans are “conservative,” while 40% are “liberal,” and “moderate” and “don’t know” are the piddling remainder.  Excluding the last two indefinite categories and looking at America as a “conservative” versus “liberal” division, then, 58.3% of Americans are “conservative,” and 41.7% are “liberal.”  This is identical to the results of the January 2014 Battleground Poll.

Although many conservatives seem reluctant to accept this profoundly good reflection of ordinary Americans, the Battleground Poll has begun to dig deeper into that response.  Pollsters ask Americans who are unhappy with their political party to state if they wish their party would become “more conservative,” “more moderate,” or “more liberal,” or else if they have another response or “don’t know.”  The answer to this, Question D4-2, is even more dramatic than the answers Americans have historically given to the Battleground Poll questions asking Americans to define themselves ideologically.

Both the January 2014 Battleground Poll and the March 2014 Battleground Poll had identical responses.  The plurality of Americans who answered this question, which is predicated upon respondents being unhappy with their own political party, want their party to become “more conservative.”  Almost as many want their party to become “more moderate,” while a much smaller percentage want their party to become “more liberal.”  And only a small number either did not know or answered that they wanted a combination of those directions.

These percentages, which are directly connected to generally disillusioned Americans, obviously reflect an underlying ideological sentiment.  So what are the percentages?  A whopping 43% of Americans wanted their party to become “more conservative,” while 14% wanted their party to become “more liberal.”  The other major category, those who wanted their party to become “more moderate,” is a meaningless number in terms of ideological identification. 

Those Democrats who answered Question D4-2 by saying that they wanted their party to become “more moderate” are conservative-leaning, while Republicans who wanted their party to become “more moderate” are liberal-leaning.  In fact, because the Battleground Poll oversamples Democrats, Question D4-2 may show even more trouble for liberals nationally.

The pattern then remains in all the Battleground Poll results over the last fifteen years: conservatives are the overwhelming majority of Americans, regardless of how Americans respond to other questions in the poll, like which political party respondents favor or how respondents judge the direction of our country.  Every single national poll taken over these fifteen years, regardless of which polling organization took the poll, shows that conservatives are much larger as a group than liberals. 

Gallup, no friend of conservatives, shows that almost every state in the nation has conservatives outnumbering liberals.  Indeed, several Gallup Polls over the last five years show in every single state that conservatives outnumber liberals.  The Survey USA polls, based upon local media outlets in particular states, show the same conservative preponderance.

As I noted in my last article on this subject, even Harvard University studies 34 years ago show more conservatives in American than liberals.  More interestingly, this Harvard University report, like virtually every other poll which has data supporting this ideological breakdown, does not shout this fact, but rather tries very hard to submerge the conservative advantage in oceans of tables and data. 

If the data showed that liberals outnumbered conservatives, the Gallup, Pew Research, the Battleground Poll, and all the leftist establishment media, would be screaming that fact.  These enemies of conservatives have no interest in providing encouragement or support for conservatives in America.  The problem is that the enemies of conservatism cannot produce favorable polling data because it does not exist.  That ought to cheer conservatives.  It certainly does not bring smiles to the faces of liberals.

The latest Battleground Poll, compared with prior Battleground Polls, shows the percentage of Americans who describe themselves as “conservative” dropping.  The percentage is lower than almost any Battleground Poll in the last fifteen years.  The percentage of Americans who call themselves “liberal,” by contrast, is at an all-time high.  

Modification in the demographics of the poll sample may have something to do with the change.  Women form 53% of the sample, while women are 50.6% of the population.  Blacks are 13% of the Battleground sample, a smidgen more that the black percentage of the population.  As I noted a few years ago, the Battleground Poll has also increased the percentage of young adults in the sample, and the percentage of young adults in the sample rose just as the percentage of Americans describing themselves as “conservative” slipped a bit.

So what does the March 2014 Battleground Poll say about the “conservative / liberal” division of America?  Conservatives are still the overwhelming majority of Americans, as every single Battleground Poll in the last fifteen years has shown: 56% of Americans are “conservative,” while 40% are “liberal,” and “moderate” and “don’t know” are the piddling remainder.  Excluding the last two indefinite categories and looking at America as a “conservative” versus “liberal” division, then, 58.3% of Americans are “conservative,” and 41.7% are “liberal.”  This is identical to the results of the January 2014 Battleground Poll.

Although many conservatives seem reluctant to accept this profoundly good reflection of ordinary Americans, the Battleground Poll has begun to dig deeper into that response.  Pollsters ask Americans who are unhappy with their political party to state if they wish their party would become “more conservative,” “more moderate,” or “more liberal,” or else if they have another response or “don’t know.”  The answer to this, Question D4-2, is even more dramatic than the answers Americans have historically given to the Battleground Poll questions asking Americans to define themselves ideologically.

Both the January 2014 Battleground Poll and the March 2014 Battleground Poll had identical responses.  The plurality of Americans who answered this question, which is predicated upon respondents being unhappy with their own political party, want their party to become “more conservative.”  Almost as many want their party to become “more moderate,” while a much smaller percentage want their party to become “more liberal.”  And only a small number either did not know or answered that they wanted a combination of those directions.

These percentages, which are directly connected to generally disillusioned Americans, obviously reflect an underlying ideological sentiment.  So what are the percentages?  A whopping 43% of Americans wanted their party to become “more conservative,” while 14% wanted their party to become “more liberal.”  The other major category, those who wanted their party to become “more moderate,” is a meaningless number in terms of ideological identification. 

Those Democrats who answered Question D4-2 by saying that they wanted their party to become “more moderate” are conservative-leaning, while Republicans who wanted their party to become “more moderate” are liberal-leaning.  In fact, because the Battleground Poll oversamples Democrats, Question D4-2 may show even more trouble for liberals nationally.

The pattern then remains in all the Battleground Poll results over the last fifteen years: conservatives are the overwhelming majority of Americans, regardless of how Americans respond to other questions in the poll, like which political party respondents favor or how respondents judge the direction of our country.  Every single national poll taken over these fifteen years, regardless of which polling organization took the poll, shows that conservatives are much larger as a group than liberals. 

Gallup, no friend of conservatives, shows that almost every state in the nation has conservatives outnumbering liberals.  Indeed, several Gallup Polls over the last five years show in every single state that conservatives outnumber liberals.  The Survey USA polls, based upon local media outlets in particular states, show the same conservative preponderance.

As I noted in my last article on this subject, even Harvard University studies 34 years ago show more conservatives in American than liberals.  More interestingly, this Harvard University report, like virtually every other poll which has data supporting this ideological breakdown, does not shout this fact, but rather tries very hard to submerge the conservative advantage in oceans of tables and data. 

If the data showed that liberals outnumbered conservatives, the Gallup, Pew Research, the Battleground Poll, and all the leftist establishment media, would be screaming that fact.  These enemies of conservatives have no interest in providing encouragement or support for conservatives in America.  The problem is that the enemies of conservatism cannot produce favorable polling data because it does not exist.  That ought to cheer conservatives.  It certainly does not bring smiles to the faces of liberals.